Blog dedicated to reporting on Mexican drug cartels
on the border line between the US and Mexico

Thursday, January 27, 2011

Researcher Predicts 5000 will die in Juarez in 2011

Photo: A funeral procession for some of the victims of a January 2010 attack that left 15 young people dead in Ciudad Juarez. Credit: Jesus Alcazar / European Pressphoto Agency

Daniel Hernandez, Mexico City
LA Times Blogs

An artificial-intelligence model generated by a university researcher in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, projects that 5,000 people will be killed in the violent border city this year. The same model projected at the start of 2010 that 3,000 would be killed in the greater Juarez area, a figure that eventually reached 3,111 -- about a 94% accuracy rate.

It may seem far-fetched to make such long-term projections on a fluid criminal conflict such as the drug war in Juarez. Researcher Alberto Ochoa, in an interview with La Plaza on Monday, said his model is based on methods that mimic biology-based, or "bioinspired," patterns. Barring a "radical change" in Ciudad Juarez -- where the Juarez and Sinaloa cartels are battling over the drug-trafficking route across the U.S. border into El Paso, Texas -- his projection foresees a figure of roughly 5,000 dead.

"This technique is nothing new," Ochoa said from the Autonomous University of Ciudad Juarez, where he is a researcher at the Center for Social Investigations. "It's not the most accurate model but it is based heavily on reality."

"It's not Excel," the researcher added, referring to the commonly used software program. "The model has to be fed, values have to be adjusted. It's complicated."

By differing measures, Juarez ranks as the most violent city in Mexico, most violent in the Western Hemisphere, or even the most violent in the world, the local newspaper El Diario reported earlier this month (link in Spanish). Juarez, with a current population of 1.3 million, has lost more than 230,000 residents in an "exodus" from the daily barrage of drug-related killings, kidnappings and extortion operations.

"And no one does nothing," Ochoa said. "It's going to get worse."

The 3,111 figure of deaths in Juarez in 2010 is used among local news outlets, citing figures from the Juarez morgue, and includes homicides in the greater Juarez area. Within Juarez city limits, the federal government's recently released homicide database says 2,738 people died there in 2010.

On Sunday in Juarez, gunmen opened fire on a group of young people playing soccer at a new government-built field, killing seven, authorities said (links in Spanish).


  1. Juarez is such a tragedy, reading 'Murder City' really opened my eyes, not so much to the actual facts of the conflict, Bowden is pretty bad about that, but the fact that everyone (myself first of all) like to use convenient easy answers, like Juarez and Sinaloa are fighting, thats why all the violence and executions of children now, or all the kidnappings, or brutal killings, extortion. But, it's more complex then that, and Bowden suggests, and I am inclined to believe that violence and murder have been woven into the social fabric of Juarez.

    We don't really know whos killing who, it is rarely explained, and hardly seems to matter at this point, we don't know what gangs are aligned with who, who is loyal to who, who orders the murders, are the cartels even in control of their enforcement? I could completley lose myself in thse questions and their answers, I will keep the people of Juarez in my thoughts forever. I hope something can be done, but it just seems to far gone at this point.

  2. man, i hope that i'm right and this A.I. model is wrong. 5000 reported homicides is a very big number for a city the size of el paso. that's like the equivalent to almost a decade of homicides in los angeles, a city of 4 million, the size of over 500 square miles.

    these same people say that juarez currently has a population of 1.3 million but i've been to juarez recently and i would have to disagree. many streets are dead. it feels like 35% of their businesses are closed and i'm guessing that they probably have less than a million. if there are 1.3 million people living there, you certainly don't see it on the streets.

    the audacity of these people to create these statistics so early. are they hoping that they will be right just to prove a point? i'm betting that at the end of the year, this prediction will be wrong. i don't think the # will reach 5000, but maybe 4000.

    people have told me that los zetas and the juarez cartel are planning a strong alliance for 2011 to attack the sinaloa cartel so if that does happen, i think that this number can be reached but so far, i don't believe that this will happen. i hope i'm right though. this madness has got to stop. i can't imagine the juarenses suffering an even higher # of atrocities in 2011.

  3. also this will be the year the us steps in.. for the election you know. watch bring them home and ...... put them to work here.

    so my guess wont be as high as yours.



    I think I know where he is gonna go live when he retires. and where all his money is going.

    is that Polo?

    my guess is..about

    3244 which on the phone pad translates to


  5. J...good to see you got something out of Murder City, you were the first to be critical of it in anyway and I have compelled so many people to buy it I should get an agents fee...I get what you are saying...I also like academic, facts, and the answer to "why" but for that there is the book by Grayson MEXICO narco violence and a failed state...goes deep into Mx political history and how the leaders have engaged with criminal and corruption for decades...myself I read it all and gain from each.

    Regarding this article, I saw it last night and was not surprised. I have been predicting 2011 will be a blood bath,,I see two power cartels left standing strong with new territorial gains..Zs and Sinaloa..

    as for the numbers...remember it is Mx math, the reporting that is, and my research reveals that 50-90% of DTO related deaths are not reported as such, and are intentionally reported as accidental or natural causes, one can imagine the true number to be in the 100s of thousands. Messico can never get the number near to consitant, they are constantly palying with the numbers, crunch to where they need to be. Today I read they say 80 americans killed in Juarez...funny because every agency had it at 120-138 last month. those things drive me nuts, this should be hard numbers, dead is dead. In tamps no official count of deaths has been done for 2-3 years since cartels drive the non-profit agency there conducting an accurate count.

  6. What a bunch of Baloney!!
    That projection can be aquired by any Fortune teller. 5,000 dead is a number that some pe-on picked out of a hat.
    Its silly to belive such garbage. Everyone knows that Juarez is a shit town now and that more death and misery is yet to come from there but what that Physic does not know are the different variables that will occur in Juarez implemented by the Mexican Goverment.
    These worthless sorry fuck cartel, gangbanger losers will be defeated...For Sure!!!
    Stay tuned and watch!!!!

  7. Puro desmadre en Mexico! This war will wage for at least 5-8 more years. The amount of people being killed each year is such a small percent of the entire population that is involved in the drug trade. They can kill 10,000 each and more poeple will come out of the shanties to to replace them so they can hold a chingon gun, drive a troca del ano, and buy Ed Hardey clothes.

    The federal governemnt is at fault. Too many poor people in mexico have no other outlet or oportunity. They don't know any better. All there is, is survival. As long as there are legiones of poor people living with no electricity, running water, education, oportunity..........those people will be willing to kill for it a la chingada.

    If the tea party republicans had it their way. We would be Mexico. With no federal programs and public education cut and no regulations on business....the rich get richer, their walls grow taller, and the people out side more poor desperite and willing to matarte a la fregada por lo que quieren.

  8. Buela, look at CDG's recent actions against the Zeta's, they aren't backing down, or ceding any territory, they are going straight at them, I don't think Z's will win any territory from them, they will be pushed deeper into southern Mexico, CA. My prediction.

  9. @ DFL

    I read your comments and you get me psyched up man! I agree, 5000 is just a number. No one can predict the future except god. You're right, let's stay tuned and watch!

  10. I think los zetas are going to grow stronger in 2011. If they take guatemala they will only get bigger and more powerful. They are still strong in taumalipas and have moved into monterrey and if they are smart, they should strengthen their alliance with the juarez cartel because whatever cartel is standing in the end, will have to go to war with the sinaloa cartel. I also believe that they move more south to central america but as much as I hate to admit it, los zetas are not going anywhere. Other than the sinaloa cartel, los z's seem to be the fastest growing cartel. Look at the drug maps and see how much they control already. I hate los zetas but these pricks are tenacious.

  11. I agree with buela's prediction. No matter how much I hate the @#$%& zetas.

  12. hey you want to hear a funny joke?

    mexican law enforcement

    want to hear an even funnier one?

    more mexican law enforcement

    the last day is was in Monterrey ..driving down Madero..there on the esquinas were the little z halcons...on their crapped out little motorbikes...with that little smirky smile they have...and police cars driving by

    do you ya think it ever occurs to these cops to stop and say..

    (i cant do all this in spanish) for effect i will do it in southern good 'ol boy sherriff patois

    hey boy ..whatchu doin here ..what is yore name ..whose boy are you got an ID...where do you live...lets see what you got in yore got a proof of ownership fer that there got a drivers license fer that can't be hanging out here boy ..if i see you here again i am gonna bust yore ass better go home boy...fukn with them ol zetas is a gonna get yore puny lil ass killed

    nooo...just driving around with the lights on ..makin sure any crooks see them from a good safe distance...yeap that is the Monterrey Municipal Policia...makes me feel really safe

    is the same style in juarez?

    ok just to make insult intended ..just for artistic effect ..ok?,,alright

  13. Ay lito!

    I've never been to monterrey. How are the women over there? Do they have a lot of pretty woman?

  14. @ ajulio ..

    yer kidding me right?

    ok i am gonna take you serious ...

    yeah man go down to barrio antigua ..on a good night ..100's of the most beautiful women you ever seen..and i mean fine all dressed to the nines
    or if you want more real local type places
    go to the bar international on Madero when they are playing cumbia or salsa ...or something ..they usually got big live bands goin

    there are girls in there who dance with you or teach you how to dance for 10 pesos a dance or like 100 pesos for an hour ...or free if they like you

    but there are all kinds of people there...young and old .. some of them can really dance like on some tv show or is cool as all hell

    i have seen some of the most beautiful women i have ever seen there

    regia montanas are kinda legendary
    for their looks ...just ask one ..she will tell you ...jajjajj

    after it all settles down . for real if you have never out on the town in Monterrey you gotta go ...

  15. Why does it come as no great surprise that lito brito's and ajulio's main EXPRESSED interests now are in whoring it up better in Monterrey as US based Anglo 'experts' at it? Buela, you, too?

    Just a post or two back and lito brito was cagando en sus pantalones about the security situation there and now ajulio is going to use him as his mongering expert in Monterrey? How funny! I'm sure all the pretty young women in the cantinas will be holding their noses when this couple rolls around to their sad places of work. Yuck...

  16. ok uhrny...


    now i know you have never been to Mexico..or anywhere out of the USA

    ..cantinas ...jajaja..there aint no fukn "cantinas in Monterrey you ignorant asshole...

    Monterrey is 4 and a half million people and is as modern as about any big American city...cantinas..nitwit fuktard.

    you need to rent some new movies about is past the magnificent 7 days

    here is a more up to date movie

    FYI the places of ill repute in Monterrey are called table bars,,or they don't even have a name ..just a neon sign that says "open"...cantinas ..jajajjaja


    are you watchin clint eastwwod movies or somethings....jjajaj


  17. 12:38

    5000 dead in one year.. lets do the math shall we? (Or rather I will do the math and you watch and learn because obviously you didn't pay attention in school long enough to learn division).

    So we know that in 2010 the official tally was 3000 dead in Juarez

    So lets see.. 3000/365 = 8.25 murders a day
    5000/365 = 13.5 murders a day

    Its really not that far from the current numbers. It is definitely within the realm of possibility, if you take the time to THINK and do MATH before you jump on a keyboard and open your big MOUTH, you might learn something!

    Here, try practicing on this:

  18. It is very far from the current numbers. That's 2000 more lives we're talking about. Less than double the amount of last year. I believe that people should'nt play with these types of statistics because then we lose focus, each number just becomes a point and is disregarded as a human being. This is not even the statistics game, it is the prediction game. And the aztecas believe that the apocalypse will happen in 2012. Yeah right!

    I have to go against this prediction no matter what. I pray to GOD that i'm right.

  19. SMURF - this time in lower case. I wanted to know why you even print such an article. I can do the math. You can stuff the condescension. My point - which I failed to get through to you - was that it is useless to publish predictions of numbers of deaths. What purpose does it serve for one to predict 5000 deaths, another to predict 3500 deaths - so?? Unless you are trying to make points with Mr. Ochoa, who is trying to get his hand in the game or he wouldn't be pushing his "model". The coffin makers might be interested in those numbers or the ambulance drivers or the cops. But why is BB in the death prediction game? Unless you want to be a tabloid "news" provider. ajulio @ 12:29 gets it.

  20. Ajulio...yes there are many beautiful women in Mty! in fact BB had a pic of one, previously a red head, but as she hung off a mty bridge was now a blonde...

    Urn...I don't know how I got thrown in the mix speaking of womanizing...unless I am Hussy-Man again. the way you protest gives credibilty to Briiiitos's asertion you "hang" in castro. I am not sure, you are a sissy-man of sorts.

    the numbers argument is so silly. everyone that knows Messico knows the number are greatly under reported, but lets take the 5000. Not at all unrealistic based on math, using stats already in the new year all over Mx reports are that the year is off to record numbers and this year will be by far the bloodiest on record.

    Smurf...the calculator link killed me...nice touch

  21. I think Bowden's work deserves more credit then that, it is an incredibly painful subject, and the book is unsttling to read, but I like that, I would like more facts, and explanations, but that's partly why I like the book much, there are limited explanations, and the fact is, if it's your child, or husband, it doesn't matter if it was Sinaloa cartel or Juarez cartel. I think Bowden really drives those points in 'Murder City', and he changed me perspectgive, or added to it, by reading it. I want to read 'Dreamland' next.

    And, I think the point of posting the story, is simply to state that it's is possible, even probable that there will be 5,000 murders in a city of about 2 million people. That is staggering, unbelievable, shocking, unacceptable, all of those adjectives and more. And, most of us can do nothing but watch it unfold and maybe send some money to a charity or something.

  22. The reason I posted this was NOT for the shock value of the number of predicted deaths, but for the shock value that nobody, including "so called experts" foresee change, regardless of new troops, new social programs, and whatever else you want to throw into the mix for "improving" Juarez's situation.

    It's as if they are resigned to the fact that things WILL get worse, no matter what.

    On the other hand, if every other Tom, Dick, and Harry can supposedly look into the future and see it will get much worse (as they say), then why can't the State and Federation do the same and see something needs to change..time to try something else.

  23. Are all you other BB Cartel Right Wing comedians in agreement with Brito about there supposedly being no 'cantinas' in Monterrey? ...LMAO...

    'ok uhrny...
    now i know you have never been to Mexico..or anywhere out of the USA
    ..cantinas ...jajaja..there aint no fukn "cantinas in Monterrey you ignorant asshole...'

    Honestly, Border 'Securitarian' Brito drinks too damn much IMO. Nothing much else to do as he watches all those 'nurses' and 'secretaries' dancing nude for him in Monterrey....

  24. This articles helps me more.Thanks for your sharing,I will pay more attentions to your articles. Looking forward to your better and better articles.See you next time.
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