4 die as Mexican security forces reinforce southern Chihuahua

By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com

An undisclosed number of Mexican security forces have been retasked into southern Chihuahua state in the wake of the kidnapping of a political candidate, according to Mexican news accounts.

According to a news report which appeared in the online edition of Yanciuc.com, Chihuahua governor Cesar Duarte Jaquez reportedly said that an undisclosed number of Mexican Army and Naval Infantry troops have been moved into southern Chihuahua and parts of Durango and Sinaloa states with the mission of "attacking criminal groups" which operate in the area.

According to the article, Durate referred specifically to the Golden Triangle, which is an area of the Mexican sierras where drugs and cultivated, and where security is at a premium.

According to a direct quote in the Yancuic article, federal security forces area tasked with eliminating drug cultivation, recovering stolen vehicles, especially offroad trucks used in rough terrain, and to combat criminal acts.

Governor Duarte mentioned that the Mexican Navy (SEMAR) has been providing intelligence in the new operation, probably referring to SEMAR's access to electronic intercepts.

In a separate news report which appeared on the website of El Sol de Parral news daily, a large convoy of security forces vehicle -- two Mexican Army, three Policia Estatal Unica ,two of the Procuraduria General de la Republica (PGR) four Policia Ministerial and  Policia Preventiva -- were spotted near Parral three days ago,  near the villages of Villa Coronado, Villa Lopez, Pueblito de Allende and Valle de Allende.  The news account said that those security forces had been conducting traffic stops searching for drug and guns. The group was also deployed to execute arrest warrants.

According to the report, the new deployments is an official response to the kidnapping and subsequent murder of Partido Revolucioanrio Institucional (PRI) candidate Jaime Orozco Madriga last week. Orozco Madriga was the PRI candidate for municipal president of Guadalupe y Calvo, which has been a focal point for drug and gang related violence in recent weeks.

A total of 14 political entities, including the states of Chihuahua, Durango and Zacatecas are in the midst of midterm elections for local deputies and municipal presidents and some town councils.  At the moment news about official responses to criminal activities are at a premium as Article 41 of the Mexican Constitution forbids official government news to be disseminated while electioneering and voting is taking place.

The election is to take place July 7th, but the news blackout lifts after July 9th.

Every one of the states bordering the US are having their midterm elections except for Coahuila state, with Baja California going through an election for governor, as well as for local deputies and municipal presidents.

Three years ago PRI won 11 of 14 statehouses in a stunning win over its longtime rival Partido Accion Nacional (PAN), but a recent trend has emerged starting with the Michocacan election in November, 2011 in which PRI has failed to win majorities in local state legislatures, as well as in the national Chamber of Deputies. 

PRI in that body is forced to rely on temporary alliances to advance its agenda.

According to a separate Yancuic article, seven candidates for political office in Chihuahua state have requested protection from the state electoral body, Instituto Estatal Electoral (IEE). The candidates have included PAN and PRI candidates as well as others, though none of the requests have come from candidates in southern Chihuahua state.

Meanwhile in Guadalupe y Calvo municipality three individuals, including one female were shot to death in a shootout Tuesday morning, according to Mexican news accounts.

According to a news account which appeared in the online edition of El Puente Libre, Arcelia Cardenas Villanueva, 28 and José Asael Calderon Escarcega, 25 and another unidentified man were shot to death near the remote village of San Julian de Piedra Larga in a gunfight in which AK-47 rifles were used.  Authorities recovered five vehicles in the area including three which had been immolated.

Four unidentified individuals traveling in the area towards Meza de San Rafael at the same time as the shooting were forced to abandon their vehicle when it was hit by gunfire, and to seek refuge in an arroyo. 

A total of 14 spent cartridge casings from an AK-47 rifle and one each spent cartridge casing from a .45 caliber and a .380 caliber weapon were recovered at the scene.

Much of the information had been relayed through the Mexican federal Ministerio Publico which is not bound by Article 41 restrictions.

A separate news report in El Tiempo de Mexico said that two individuals were hurt in the shooting.

Chris Covert writes Mexican Drug War and national political news for Rantburg.com and BorderlandBeat.com He can be reached at grurkka@gmail.com

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As Criminal Violence Soars, Mexico Begins Presidential Search

By Greg Flakus - Houston
Voice of America News
On Sunday, July 3 Mexicans in the state of Mexico, which borders Mexico City, will elect a new governor, while the current governor, Enrique Pena Nieto campaigns to be elected president. The politicking in Mexico comes as the current president, Felipe Calderon, is enmeshed in a war against drug cartels and other criminal organizations that has cost around 40,000 lives in the past five years. Some Mexicans hope a change in leadership may lead to diminished violence or even a truce with the powerful cartels, but the war is likely to continue well into the next presidential term.

One of the international observers on hand for the voting in the state of Mexico is Professor George Grayson of the College of William and Mary, considered one of the top US experts on Mexico. He says Governor Enrique Pena Nieto wants to use the election as a springboard for his presidential campaign.

“He wants to make sure that his successor wins by a huge majority to give impetus to his juggernaut as he seeks to become chief executive next year, so this July 3rd gubernatorial contest is really in many ways a primary for next year's election," said Grayson

Public opinion polls indicate Pena Nieto is likely to get his way Sunday and that he has a very good chance of winning the presidency next year. He is a member of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, known as the PRI, the party that ruled Mexico uninterrupted for some 70 years before Vicente Fox of the National Action Party won the presidency in 2000.

Some Mexicans see a return of the PRI as a possible way of stopping the violence. They say the party, for all its unsavory reputation for corruption and abuse of power, did maintain public order when it was in power, perhaps even making deals with cartels to turn a blind eye to their drug smuggling as long as they avoided violence.

Grayson, who says the PRI did make such deals in the past, says that is unlikely now. He says Pena Nieto and other candidates have told him personally they would never negotiate with the cartels.

“It is not because they are opposed to trying to reach a modus vivendi [agreement for peaceful coexistence], but there are just too many big shots now and one of the cartels, which calls itself Los Zetas, could not be trusted any further than you could throw its paunchy leader," he said.

Aside from the trust factor, Grayson says there is also the question of with whom to negotiate. The most powerful drug cartel, that run by Joaquin “Chapo” Guzman in the western state of Sinoloa, is being challenged by not one, but several rivals whose alliances with each other are constantly shifting. Most of the murders in Mexico over the past few years have involved gunmen from one cartel killing operatives from another cartel.

Some have suggested that legalization of drugs might curb the power of the cartels, but the men with guns are not likely to disappear from the scene even if that did happen. Security analyst Scott Stewart of Austin, Texas-based Stratfor, a global intelligence company, says US law enforcement agencies have determined that many of the cartels are not exclusively drug traffickers.

“Previously they would call them drug-trafficking organizations, or DTOs, and today they are increasingly referred to as trans-national criminal organizations, or TCOs, because they are involved in all these different crimes," said Stewart. "Especially a lot of the weaker organizations. Sinaloa does not seem to be quite that much involved in these other crimes, but many of its enemies, especially the remnants of the Arellano-Felix organization, the remnants of the Carillo-Fuentes organization, Los Zetas, they are involved in kidnapping, extortion, cargo theft, alien smuggling, even CD and DVD piracy.”

The Mexican Attorney General's office estimates that criminal gangs are generating about two million dollars in cash flow every day by pirating music CDs and movies on DVD. If criminals kill each other over drug profits, they will also fight over the money generated by other crimes.

Stewart says some Mexican politicians might see an advantage in favoring one or two major crime organizations in a bid to reduce the violence that has disrupted normal life in many cities near the US border.

“If the more extreme violent people can be taken out then the more business-oriented folks, the folks who are more interested in moving product and not necessarily creating these big battles might move to the top," he said.

Stewart sees a bigger problem holding back efforts by President Calderon to defeat the powerful criminal gangs. He says the massive profits of these cartels have benefited the Mexican economy and, by extension, many elite citizens who may not have any direct connection to the criminal enterprises.

“It is not just street-level thugs running around with AK-47s," said Stewart. "We are talking about billions of dollars being infused into the Mexican economy. That is the kind of money that is being handled by legitimate bankers, legitimate business people and people who are very well tied into the Mexican establishment.”

Stewart says similar benefits have landed north of the border, where U.S. investigators have found banks involved in money laundering for the Mexican cartels. North Carolina-based Wachovia Bank recently agreed to pay 160 million dollars to settle a U.S. government probe into alleged laundering of Mexican drug money.

But aside from any financial benefit some influential people might obtain, there is also the question of how much they are willing to do personally to strengthen their country's ability to fight crime. George Grayson says that is the element that he finds sadly lacking in Mexico.

“If there is going to be any progress on the drug war in Mexico the elites are going to have to commit themselves to fighting organized crime," he said. "They are largely cocooned from the violence. They have state-of-the-art security systems in their homes, they have experienced drivers, they have bodyguards. We found in Colombia, progress could be made in their drug war only when the establishment committed itself to fighting the bad guys and thus far, outside of the north of Mexico, the elite simply has not made that commitment to fight organized crime. Until they do, the violence will continue to escalate.”

While crime and insecurity are likely to be issues in the coming presidential campaign in Mexico, Grayson says it is likely that the person who succeeds President Calderon next year will continue the fight against the criminal organizations, perhaps with some modifications or new programs. But, he says, the cartels are unlikely to disrupt elections because they know that if Mexico's governmental institutions breakdown and anarchy threatens, it could open the way to more direct intervention by the United States and a disastrous disruption of their lucrative illegal trade.

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