Blog dedicated to reporting on Mexican drug cartels
on the border line between the US and Mexico

Friday, June 8, 2018

ONC predicts 2018 will be another year of failed security, worst in 20 years

Translated by El Profe for Borderland Beat from Sin Embargo

By Sugeyry Gándara

Crimes related to gender violence in Mexico, in the first four months of 2018, were increasing by 40.8 percent, on average, according to official figures. According to analysts consulted by Sin Embargo, the lack of reporting, the under-reporting of violence, the weakness of institutions and the lack of prevention, are some factors that do not allow adequate attention to violence that affect, at least, 30.7 millions of women.

Every hour, in our country, five crimes of gender violence were committed, according to figures from the Executive Secretariat of the National Public Security System (SESNSP). While last January there were 2 thousand 656 investigation files for some type of crime, in April, 3 thousand 739 were registered.

Mexico City (Sin Embargo) - The National Citizen Observatory (ONC) predicted that 2018 will be even more violent than the previous year, as it is expected that the incidence of homicides and femicides will increase by 6.88 percent over the previous year.

"Mexico is going through one of the worst crises of violence in the last 20 years. Not only we can not move forward but we are still lost in a route that makes us think that things are not going to improve," said Francisco Rivas, Director of the National Observatory.

The analysis was made known during the presentation of the High Impact Crime Study in Mexico in 2017, which includes an analysis of the behavior of high-impact crimes and, based on this, presents a forecast for 2018.

"It is well known that the previous year ended with the highest homicide rate. Unfortunately we think that this situation will be repeated in 2018 and will be increased,” with what will be the worst in two decades.

We do not have an accurate approach to combat insecurity. Many candidates talk about technology or implementation of institutions, but they never tell us in reality what is the way to carry out 👉🏼
Annual Study 2017, Incidence of high-impact crimes in Mexico
- Francisco Rivas (@frarivasCoL) June 7, 2018

The study predicts that intentional homicide, plus femicide, will rise this year at a rate of 6.88 percent compared to 2017.

"Here we think that the year will close at a rate of 22.21 to 23.29 research files per 100 thousand inhabitants and a rate of 25.4 to 27.6 victims per 100 thousand inhabitants," explained Rivas.

He recalled that in 2017 there was a rate of 23.82 homicide victims per 100 thousand inhabitants, that is, that the rate increased by 26 percent with respect to 2016.

"We can not predict that we will see a change in behavior and the beginning of the reduction of intentional homicide," he added.

In addition, the ONC noted that the problem remains in the classification of culpable homicide: "there are cases that are recorded as unclear but there are certain aspects that make us feel that it could be fraudulent," he added.

In relation to kidnapping, this is one of the few crimes that decreased during 2017 at a rate of 1.43 victims per 100 thousand inhabitants. The forecast is that it will continue to fall.

Francisco Rivas stressed that the public perception of absolute impunity continues.

The Observatory urged the Mexican State to change its security policy and attack the finances of criminals with modifications to the Law of Extinction of Dominion.

"We need to change [in terms of security] from a reactive approach, we need operative actions," he said.

He added: "We need to weaken the financial structure of criminals. The authority needs more strength to dismantle the financial structure."

The civil organization also denounced that Plataforma México was abandoned, which it considered an error.

"We need the use of effective technology," this implies the strengthening of Plataforma Mexico. It is a key input to generate intelligence in the country," he added.

Female politicians from several states called for a peaceful demonstration in the zócalos, of the entities and municipalities of the country, to demand a "halt to the murders and different expressions of political violence against women in the exercise of their rights."

The main form of kidnapping is extortion, since it represents 68% and 74% of men and women victims of kidnapping from the jurisdiction 👉🏼 @frarivasCoL Annual study 2017, Incidence of high-impact crimes in Mexico https: // t. co / uD4OfUpzHK
- ObsNalCiudadano (@ObsNalCiudadano) June 7, 2018

In a statement that circulated in past days on social networks, the general public urged to gather next Thursday, June 14, at 5:00 p.m. (central time), in the different Zócalos of Mexico.

Given the situation: "we call on the political parties, authorities, the actors involved, as well as the general public, to be aware that political violence against women because of gender is real and serious.” 


  1. Nice prediction half way thru the year. The prediction is rather obvious at this point.

  2. Interesting article bb.
    Nothing will change when assets are not being fortfeitted. From those financial institutions to the individual themselves. Following the money is something all government lack.

    Hitting those financially from the top to bottom will definitely make an impact.
    However, judging from experience of current apprehensions. Bank accounts remain hidden. Moreover, untouched.
    Crime and violence will always be an issue in Mexico. Impunity and corruption go hand in hand. Resources are obtainable and have been. Just not in Mexico's best interests.


    1. Attacking the Narcos is useless because compared to the crimes of the president, his ministers, legislators and state governors who steal from the people and tbe treasury on all fronts and supplement the take with kidnapping for ransom by their police and military, that narco-money is almost clean and holly, and has usually paid its own devil tax.
      Please note that Fidel Castro and MAO TSE TUNG used no research centers or tattle tattlers to take control of power gangs making teouble for them, they just gave the job to the red guards or neighborhood watch squads and they never failed their mandate, also used no treasury or excuses, only volunteerism.
      Police women need to understand that the government will not do anything for them, or for the people, they need to organize their own thing themselves and involve the people in their communities to be effective, most men don't have what it takes.

    2. Beautiful input.


  3. Did anyone think it was gonna be different outcome?

  4. I'm just reading Gangland a book by Jerry Langton on the rise of the Mexican Drug Cartels from El Paso to Vancouver and in 1 of the chapters a sicario was interviewed from Juarez when they had all those femicides and he said it was quite the adrenaline getting a load across (I get that but do something positive with that energy) and after it was done he didn't know what to do with all that energy so him and others would rape a teenage girl,then murder her.Pretty sick negative mentality and it's all because they could get away with it (impunity).In the book it also says women who worked in the factories would take buses thinking it safer and some of the bus drivers were doing the same with the women.

    1. 5:49 no rapist bus drivers or drug trafficking mules or burros were accused of murdering the women of Juarez like the Mexican army on the scene, to the point that FECAL himself in person with his wife Margara by his side was ordered by the Juareños to take his army and stick it up his ass, which he did...
      Egypian chemist expelled from the US Abdul Latif Sharif was blamed for starting the murdering of Juarez women and ordering some more murdering from prison to prove that if he was in prison he could not have done his own murders, the rest was federal and state police and Mexican army deployed there engaging in the raping because that was what was done there.

    2. Soulless demonic subhumans are real and they need to be exterminated. The Cartels love torturing, raping and killing innocent people including children. These subhumans want people to worship them with their "narcocorridos" while they themselves worship their money and gold plated gun.

      Literal subhumans.

  5. Como esta la matazon de mujeres en mexico. Chingos de mujeres asesinadas esta semana. Vatos cobardes si le tienen coraje a alguien matenlo a el y dejen las mujeres en paz. Bola de jotos.

  6. CHIVIS!! THANK YOU, all us average people appreciate your comment on the forum regarding the person ICE deported... I applaud your rational analysis.. very refreshing..

    1. And thank you. The story was sent to me from 2 main page followers yesterday or wed. At first pass I believed the story, that the young man was a good kid, making good choices, but was deported at the age of 18 and left at the border then was killed in 3 weeks.

      A couple years ago a family through the blog reached out to me as their 18 y/o family member went missing at the border and they were unable to get info from BP or GEO. My neighbor on the border is BP chief for three cities I called him and he found the kid. He was being deported in a couple of hours! Long story but I had him hunted down on the international bridge, [another BB follower, who became my friend, helped with this] took him to the safety of a migrant shelter where I know the priest and I have contributed to over the years. My sec took him a little money, a sack lunch and bottles of water and put him on the bus to SLP.

      There are many people to offer up as deserving of a chance. But sadly, the kid from IA who was deported and killed is not one. However sad, He actually bolsters the argument for those against DACA.

      If I had not done my research I would not have known the life path he was on.


    2. Young kids starting out on a lifelong path of crime matter, to cut their ad short, but lifelong criminals matter a lot more, they impact the world worse every minute of their miserly lives way after there is no room for nipping in the bud when they have pong been using their skills at getting away with murder among the sharks and the lions, surviving with help of the russian bear mafiosos.
      It is a pity that naming names is against the rules but some big American criminals have been at it far longer that 18 year old Mexican criminal wannabes...and they still ain't sorry but they ain't got their full tank fill up...


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