By Steve Keller
Editor’s Note: Wikistrat is pleased to present the Simulation Report of our recently concluded crowdsourced simulation, “Winning Mexico’s Drug War”. To download the report, click here.
The cartels have improved their organization and capabilities despite the massive crackdowns by the Mexican government and the flood of U.S. security assistance, which has totaled more than $1.9 billion since 2008. Drug-related violence and kidnapping remain a constant threat, even in previously “safe” areas of Mexico, with an estimate of over 40,000 people killed since 2006.
In April 2013, Wikistrat ran a week-long crowdsourced simulation in which 70 analysts from around the world collaboratively developed Policy Options for the Mexican government, the U.S. government and other actors to respond to the escalating drug war in Mexico.
The goal was to provide a plausible range of strategies and techniques that could stem the tide of violence and could restore control of the country to the authorities.
Analysts were encouraged to tackle this not only from a geostrategic angle, but also to take a tactical “boots on the ground” approach in which they explored social, political and economic options as well as “kinetic” law enforcement/military ones.
They addressed not just the intended outcome but also the actors who would be involved, the details of how the option would be implemented, and the circumstances under which it would be most likely to succeed – as well as the potential consequences of failure.
To read more on how Wikistrat analysts project that various actors may bring Mexico’s drug war to an end, download the Simulation Report by clicking here.