Tuesday, July 2, 2013

“Winning Mexico’s Drug War” Simulation Report

Borderland Beat

By Steve Keller
Wikistrat


Editor’s Note: Wikistrat is pleased to present the Simulation Report of our recently concluded crowdsourced simulation, “Winning Mexico’s Drug War”. To download the report, click here.

 
Mexico is burning. Over much of the last decade, Mexican drug cartels have conglomerated and made moves to challenge the central government (and each other) for control over territory and drug markets.

The cartels have improved their organization and capabilities despite the massive crackdowns by the Mexican government and the flood of U.S. security assistance, which has totaled more than $1.9 billion since 2008. Drug-related violence and kidnapping remain a constant threat, even in previously “safe” areas of Mexico, with an estimate of over 40,000 people killed since 2006.

In April 2013, Wikistrat ran a week-long crowdsourced simulation in which 70 analysts from around the world collaboratively developed Policy Options for the Mexican government, the U.S. government and other actors to respond to the escalating drug war in Mexico.

The goal was to provide a plausible range of strategies and techniques that could stem the tide of violence and could restore control of the country to the authorities.

Analysts were encouraged to tackle this not only from a geostrategic angle, but also to take a tactical “boots on the ground” approach in which they explored social, political and economic options as well as “kinetic” law enforcement/military ones.

They addressed not just the intended outcome but also the actors who would be involved, the details of how the option would be implemented, and the circumstances under which it would be most likely to succeed – as well as the potential consequences of failure.

To read more on how Wikistrat analysts project that various actors may bring Mexico’s drug war to an end, download the Simulation Report by clicking here.

19 comments:

  1. No matter who wins, mexico loses

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  2. Yes, so let's post the strategies for all to see so that even the cartels can be ready beforehand and adjust.

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  3. I can't beleive that study was made by so called "experts". the only good suggestions, which will never happen, is the ending of corruption at high levels. All the other suggestions are frieken riduculous due to the corruption in Mexico. They suggest the Mexican people should be given jobs and opportunity. maybe they havent noticed the amount of Mexicans living in the United States. Treating users the samem as drug dealers was the most stupid idea of all. That whole paper failed to mention the most important part of dealing with all this drug nonesense, THE LEGALIZATION OF DRUGS!!!

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  4. Yeah yipee a group of bureaucrats is gonna solve all of mexicos problems hip hip horray

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  5. step 1: abolish DEA.
    step 2: Decriminalize Marijuana, Cocaine, and Poppy sales.
    step 3: Decriminalize Marijuana, Cocaine, and Poppy consumption.
    step 4. there is no step 4. in just three easy steps we take away the power from Law Enforcement and Drug Organizations. Now watch as our society focuses on the things that really matter now that we don't have to deal with this bullshit anymore.

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  6. Umm... The paper DID speak on the legalization of drugs. ie. taxing it and controlling it. Would be a major profit hit for the cartels in Mexico.

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  7. Green jobs and the catholic church? Sounds like the new world order to me

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  8. It will make the cartels result to other ideas of making money human trafficking organ trafficking more extortion slaughter houses everywhere bank robbing who ever wants to legalize drugs is really dumb in my opinion no matter what cartels won't go extinct

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  9. not impressed. i didnt read anything of value in the whole report or anything that could realistically implemented. 70 analysts, eh? how many have traveled in mexico in the past year? analysts....gimme a break. the ave mexican citizen has more of an understanding on how the cartels work than all the armchair analysts who only know mexico thru the internet.

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  10. Highest Yoga TantraJuly 2, 2013 at 3:52 PM

    2013 ▪ 07 ▪ 02

    Hmmm . . . WikiStrat? A substrate of Stratfor Global Intelligence and WikiLeaks?

    I opt the Master Naratives II - the highest-risk option - but will be costly and lives will be sacrificed on both sides.

    Thank you Buggs for the link.


    /\__/\
    (=';'=)
    (")_(")

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  11. step 1: abolish DEA.
    step 2: Decriminalize Marijuana, Cocaine, and Poppy sales.
    step 3: Decriminalize Marijuana, Cocaine, and Poppy consumption.
    step 4. give away, for free, methamphetime and heroin at controlled clinics. this accomplishes two tho things. 1. take away profits from dealers, and 2. keep track of all the junkies and control the spread of infectious diseases.

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  12. Winning ni ke winning!!! mis wevos. Por "eso" simon el capone"s back!

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  13. reply to July 2, 2013 at 1:27 PM

    youre step program has already been put into practice and failed.if you really want this conflict(there is no drug war)to end.this would be a much more effective program.

    step 1:put an end to the glorification of drug/gang culture by the media(especially Hollywood).instead the media must show these trend cultures in a negative light basically show their true colors.

    step 2:change/adopt legalization policy.to a real medicine regulation policy.treat weed as medicine not as a cigar meaning close down all dispensaries and only people who are actually sick like cancer patients can get access to it. they can do this through hospitals or treatment centers. abolish private growing of weed(since this is mainly done for private profit by feeding the addicts).

    step 3:arm the population/train them. organize them in to peoples guards(civ,militas,brigades,etc).allow the population to have local trials of suspected individuals and execute them if guilty.bring back the death penalty.abolish the isolation system(prison) and adopt the indigenous system of rehabilitation or execution(or meaning if crime is severe then the person is killed if crime is petty then rehabilitation).oh yeah change gun policy to one where civs can own at least an ak47 and some ammo within at least half a year.

    this step plan would be more effective than the old legalize it(really the recreationalist)policy.

    again prohibition isn't the problem glorification and current legalization policy is

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  14. The honest truth. A strong Mexico equals a weaker U.S.A. That's just the way its been arranged. For example, why isn't Mexico manufacturing their own cars for the Mexican consumer to buy to keep their money and jobs in Mexico. Why does evertbody have to buy Boeing aircraft instead of their own to create jobs in their respective nations. Buying Sony instead of their own brands They send their money overseas. I can go on and on. I don't think it it happened that way by accident. Winning a political seat in Mexico has been taken by the PRI as a license to loot the government's funds. Mexico has not only trafficked its drugs, but its also its resources. Including its human ones.

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  15. This problem is our own doing. Mismanagement of proceeds form Mexico's natural resouces and corruption within all levels of government. It's a few robbing from the state and it's people. Very similar to what happened in Tabasco, but at a federal level. What happened in the nineties when Carlos de Gortari was president? Remember the "The December Mistake", the crappy banking practices. There wasn't a narco violence problem then. There is no reason for Mexico to be in the state it is, other than corruption! There is enough natural resources to have a healthy economy. It was free trade agreements with fifty countries. The truth is the state has failed to provide for it's people. It is true that if they created quality jobs there would be no need to seek them abroad. Nor, would we have so many young people opting to join organized crime.

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  16. No country will ever win the war on drugs.theres way too many people doing drugs.except for you nerds that believe marijuana is bad!!!!people are bad!!!!!!

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  17. Although families in Mexico are having less children, the population in Mexico has continued to rise and now stands at 118 million. I'am not condoning the deaths of 70000 people through narco violence, however, these deaths failed to make a dent in the population growth in Mexico. Population growth in Mexico is as healthy as ever. No solace to the U.S. Republican senators who want to increase border security with an additional 20000 border patrol agents. The house of representatives Republican majority doesn't want the amnesty for the undocumented. Interesting to see what will happen.

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  18. It will only end if u kill all addicts in the US, no matter who they are, it will be almost a ghost country, how come I was asked to assist with this report, im very well informed, oh maybe i forgot i live in the states and have no idea on how im going to make this report sound very intelligent, ok i will just let the experts talk,, keep going.......

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  19. El dinero y la droga lavan el coco de todos, Simple nomas drogate., ponte a contra y recibe un pago O unos disparos o machetasos De los carteles y te quedas contento y con el ocico cerrado, nuestro pais esta corrupto junto con US, DEA, ATF y toda la peor mierda de losvaltos funcionarios. Noten que si la gente del pueblo estuviera igualmente armada que los narcos, la gerra de drogas se terminaria en un par de semanas. Los mexicanos somos guerreros de la paz, y tambien de paz paz contra el enemigo especilamente ya artos de todo. Eso si terminaria to esto.... Attn: el chicharronero

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