Monday, July 26, 2010

Mexico, On The Brink Of Apocalypse

Vanguardia
Reporte Índigo
24-Julio-2010

















In an interview by Carmen Aristegui, the security specialist Edgardo Buscaglia says that “The violence is like a perfect storm in which many factors are interacting to lead Mexico into a civil war scenario”

Will we see acting governors and even current cabinet members of Felipe Calderon’s administration in prison before the end of this presidential term? Could a full scale civil war erupt before 2012?

For as preposterous as this sounds, it could happen in the short term in Mexico, says Edgardo Buscaglia, a consultant to UNITAR, the United Nations Institute for Training and Research and faculty member at the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de Mexico and the University of Virginia.

Faced with the violent events this week in various parts of the country and how they occurred, some commentators caution that we face a new escalation of violence in Mexico: the stage of terrorism.

The car bomb explosion in Ciudad Juarez opened a debate about whether this could be classified as a terrorist act.

"It's important not to create the perception that it was an act indiscriminately aimed against civilians. It was not placed at a public market. It was clearly aimed at the police, "said Mexican Ambassador to the United States, Arturo Sarukhan, speaking at a forum in the U.S. Congress.

That terrorism does not exist has been the official view of the Felipe Calderon administration.

However, the ambassador did not mention what happened last Friday in Nuevo Laredo, where 12 people were killed and 21 wounded during armed clashes on the streets in broad daylight.

Neither did he speak of the slaughter of 18 innocent civilians at a birthday party that occurred in Torreon.

Perhaps because, as the PRI congressman Jorge Carlos Ramírez Marín stated, "Everybody knows that the explosion of car bombs are terrorist acts, and the government knows how serious it is to recognize an organized criminal group as a terrorist organization."

However, regardless of opinion, the fact is that the wave of violence increased last weekend, causing terror in Los Pinos, the official residence and offices of the Mexican presidency.

Maybe that's why the President Calderon, or his counsel, is seeking to change the perception of reality. The perception that his administration is overwhelmed by current events and that his strategy to gain the support required to turn his National Security Strategy into an official state policy that goes beyond his term has also failed.

Many see his National Security Strategy as a set of reforms and laws that limit civil liberties under the pretext of the urgency to create permanent anti-terrorism and anti-organized crime legislation.















Jalisco, Colima, Morelos, Sinaloa, Nuevo Leon, Nayarit, Sonora, Guerrero and above all Chihuahua and Tamaulipas have had to learn to live with the reality of daily terror.

And then there is the global murder capitol of Ciudad Juárez, where for some inexplicably lucky reason only 2 federal policemen and a civilian doctor died.

Where once the United States had been particularly attentive to what was happening in Ciudad Juarez, now it is also deeply concerned about what is happening in Nuevo Laredo.

Nuevo Laredo happens to be the largest inland port for commerce between Mexico and the U.S. where at least 12,000 tractor trailers full of industrial, agricultural and consumer goods pass daily. A permanent state of chaos in Nuevo Laredo would seriously impact trade between both nations.

Today it is assumed that the Mexican government is unable to control the violence that affects it’s innocent citizens. And if this is happening on the border with the U.S. then the national security of the U.S is also affected.

















The Apocalypse

For some, the forecasts of Edgardo Buscaglia may seem exaggerated.

This may not come to fruition because, as Mexico was described in 2006 before the current drug war began, it is a country of stable institutions capable of surviving despite the inept and corrupt rule of government officials.

Unfortunately this point of view is sounding increasingly hollow with each passing day as the terror and the deaths increase.

However, if the facts of what has occurred the last four years of the Calderon administration has convinced this security expert of the apocalypse that is approaching, is there not someone close to the president to suggest and advise on a different plan before it is too late?

To continue along the same path, the tsunami of violence will eventually drown a lot of innocent people in blood.

This tsunami will leave an apocalyptic land in it’s wake, so dangerous that other foreign powers will have to intervene to contain the growing strength of the Mexican monster of violence. This is not only a danger to Mexico, but also for the rest of the world.















More Blood Coming

On Wednesday, Dr. Buscaglia and Carmen Aristegui spoke on her radio show:

"Violence will be increasingly bloody, unfortunately, because violence is a social disease that requires ever larger doses to achieve the same effect.

"This is one of the unfortunate consequences of the negligence of the current executive branch, which has continued in power with cabinet ministers who have been involved in corruption that has been ravaging this country for the last 10 years or more.”

"We must begin to see that these acts of terrorism, unfortunately, and I say this with sadness, they may become more frequent if the Mexican government does not take the steps that you and I have talked about since four years ago on air by radio and television.”

"We have to start taking these steps. Afghanistan has already outlined a major political agreement. It is time for Mexico to take the lead and begin to delineate certain policies as did Colombia, which has achieved results in the last four or five years.”

"Mexico can do it, but not with characters you have in President Calderon's cabinet. In today’s political arena such measures will not be implemented.”.

"We have to start legal criminal proceedings within the rule of law against state governors, presidents of municipal assemblies, even cabinet ministers that surround the president.”

"These measures are so unthinkable that today they seem like science fiction. It seems preposterous, but that is what it is going to have to take. What has to be done, has to be done now. Whether President Calderon likes it or not, these measures must be taken.”

"This can’t wait for the elections of 2012 and a change in the government. "What should normally happen is for the president to call for a change in policy and a restructuring of his cabinet. A renewal of the political arena with the involvement of the country's political forces and parties.

"They must be brought together with actions not with a pitch as President Calderon likes to do but with concrete actions. Call the other parties to support, but with actions, with cabinet ministers chosen from other parties, for example. With concrete actions you assign responsibility for implementing these new measures. "

Regarding the current situation in Mexico and the future ahead, Buscaglia said: "It's like a perfect storm in which many factors are interacting to lead Mexico into a civil war scenario in a very short time if no appropriate measures are taken such as to prosecute governors and even cabinet ministers in Felipe Calderón’s administration”

17 comments:

  1. Mexico a faild country.so sad

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  2. there is a civil war already taking place in Mexico....the streets of Reynosa or Laredo are far more dangerous than Bagdad.

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  3. drug war is the highest criminal activity than any other illegals in the country? its getting worse and worse, i assume unless im wrong

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  4. It is upsetting to see the ongoing comments of persons laying blame here, there, wherever,, that ship of where that has relevance has long sailed. It is escalating now in horrific leaps umimagineable. Who would have though places like Monterrey, the jewel would be so effected so rapidly? Yet my fellow Americans still have their heads firmly up their asses in denial. For, the misplaced focus is not Mexico's pending civil war, but keeping the guy out who will take your job opportunities, you know such as mowing lawns.. the job you so desire. And a government in power that sues a state that simply want to implement the same laws the feds use to identify illegals, not because of that guy with the lawnmower, but because phoenix is the kidnapping captital of the world next to Mx DF because of the cartel presence in Az. Obama sues them in place of helping them. For the record Mx is the blame for their problems,not the people the corrupt government but we should have stepped up and assisted them in the same way as we did Colombia. We need to get Carter II out of the white house because he will never be effective in the cartel war. and Mx? Beautiful Mexico, deemed having the happiest people on earth many years in sucession? Its done, the people live in constant fear and confusion. Shootout drills for children, rumor and reality a constant insult to the phyche.. I will never see Mx return to the country it once was.

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  5. What a headline to the story! You should be proud of the fact you can write somewhere....just not in any mainstream, for profit publication.

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  6. Im a Mexican citizen currently living in the state of Tamaulipas, state where most of the violence happens on a daily basis, since 2006 the year Calderon took office from day 1 to this date there has always been military presence on the streets of Mexico. The reason for this is a war on drugs and cartels we are told, this a complete farse, the real reason a lot of people believe the army was on the streets in the first place back in 2006 was to keep Calderon in power and to prevent a Civil War like breakdown of society in Mexico as it was believed Calderon lost the elections back then to Left Wing party PRD. The strategy or reason has backfired the Mexican federal goverment and a lot of blood is in the streets and has placed Mexico on the verge of collapse.

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  7. how can mr calderon say there is no terrorism, if thats his view he must be in some sort of negociations with the kingpins because obviously mexico is being held hostage by something more fierce than just recreational drug mayhem.

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  8. way back to 1930s - 1945s it took about 8 - 10 years for international war to finally prevent nazis war in germany. no idea how long the mexico drug war will run, its just that the war (politic, religion, drug, land, etc...) is part of the traditional in the world's historic... its begins in when? BC? AD? whatever.. war goes on and on

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  9. If I were Mr Calderon I would build a toll road from South to North. Charge the cartels toll and then make selling and drug use in Mexico more illegal than it is now. Then the the country with the largest use of drugs have all they want...the USA.
    It is just a big game for the USA, sell arms, buy drugs...blame it on Mexico.
    You are telling me they can not track the thousands of arms and ammunition being traded for drugs? We are talking 10´s of thousands of bullets every week! They ( the government of USA) have no desire to stop this madness since there is too much money involved.
    The only people who want an end to this is the people of Mexico. The USA (government) could not care less about (a) the drug addicts in their country (b) the deaths in Mexico (c) doing what is morally right.
    Those of you who talk Civil War, government collapse, apocalypse really have no idea what is happening in Mexico. I know you love to dream abot the destruction of a neighbor ( like yelling "jump!" to a guy on a bridge) but rest assured Mexico is far from that point. I have lived in Mexico over a decade, I think I have a better idea than some knucklehead who only agrees with the doomsday sayers.

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  10. This inattention, focusing on the wrong problems, failure to stop the armaments flow, and endless mushrooming of demand for illegal drugs by USA has now pushed MX over the line into failed State condition. Obviously MX now is a State of Warlord-ism, with the various cartels being exactly like Warlord factions in Afghanistan, Myanmar (Burma), and Pakistan.

    So now, or soon, USA will have wake up to having a failed State full of heavily-armed Warlords, with mega-billions available to spend, on its 2,200 mile Southern border. It is faring badly in its war on warlords in AfPak so it has not developed any successful strategies to date in dealing with a fragmented State situation, especially one like has developed in MX.

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  11. Again this article points the out government's response and treatment to organize narco-terror crime as petty crime. The patient being Mexico is bleeding to death and the government's official response is to put a band aid. Mexico need a strong man dictator like former President Fujimori of Peru who defeated the Cendero Luminozo leftist guerilla.

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  12. All of this drug war talk is really scary. We all know the drug war is happening. The reason it's happening is clear...the need for drugs is supplying the death of the suppliers and runners. Drug Treatment centers are seeing a rise in admittance to their facilities because of this. We have to combat the drug problem before we can combat the drug war it's that simple.

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  13. what a shame, beautiful Mexico is dying, I want to live there so bad , but now it looks as if that can never happen

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  14. Mexican never take the fault for there wrongs in any aspect. There wrongs in the Drug war there wrongs in coming across another countries border illegally. You are now living in the country that does nothing but pass the buck enjoy it because its not the Americans faults you are suffering.

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  15. How can anyone talk about the pre-ambule of this is all about and NOT about why it is being done? What is wrong with you people? Are you so naive as to think that wars are fought without money? Follow the money trail.. isn't this what the USA is doing vs. terrorism? where is the money originating? where? on the streets of Mexico I'm sure where the power to consume does not even mimic that of the USA. If this drugs don't get into the USA there would not be money coming out. If the popostrous amount of consumers would not pay for them, there would not be those vast amount of money pouring in to to keep the bribes, gun purchasing etc.

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  16. Decriminalize marijuana and get rid of the cartels, not to mention the tax revenues. Prohibition didn't work either.

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  17. The cartel is huge, but they do not hide thier bases of operation, thier airport strips. So it only leads me to believe that everyone is on the take. Including USA. They have the ability to blow up these compounds and it may only scratch the serface, and the cartel will rebuild. Sadly it seems the cartel is running mejico.

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