What Is Cartel Kingpin El Chapo’s Legacy In Sinaloa, Mexico?

"Sol Prendido" for Borderland Beat

MEXICO CITY, MEXICO - JANUARY 8: Joaquin Guzman Loera, also known as "El Chapo" is transported to …

In 2019, Mexico’s most famous drug trafficker, Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman was sentenced to life in prison in the United States. Academics, journalists, and political analysts in Mexico and the U.S. are still working to evaluate the full scale of his impact in the state of Sinaloa in northwestern Mexico. El Chapo is responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths on both sides of the border if we tally up the opiate overdoses caused by Sinaloan fentanyl in the U.S. and organized crime-related murders in Mexico. But, in Sinaloa he is also responsible for a complicated legacy of corruption, violence, and significant economic development. I recently spoke with Noah Hurowitz, the author of the book, EL CHAPO: The Untold Story Of The World’s Most Infamous Drug Lord about El Chapo’s life and legacy.

One aspect of El Chapo’s legacy is violence. One of the most high-profile incidents that has occurred during the post-Chapo era in Sinaloa was an explosion of violence on October 17, 2019 when Mexican security forces tried to detain El Chapo’s son, Ovidio. In another incident in 2024, cartel gunmen kidnapped several dozen people in Culiacan (Sinaloa’s capital) including women and children. In total, Sinaloa recorded 19,882 homicides between 2006 and 2023.

But, something surprising is that we have actually seen a drop in homicides over the past few years in Sinaloa.

Homicide tallies have been declining in Sinaloa, Mexico in recent years, according to data from ... [+]

Nathaniel Parish Flannery

In fact, the total number of homicides recorded in Sinaloa in 2023 was more than 75 percent lower than the total from 2010, which was the worst year for violence in Sinaloa in the past two decades.

(It is important to note, however, that this drop in violence isn’t a result in a decrease in the amount of power organized crime groups wield in Sinaloa.)

Another aspect of El Chapo’s legacy is corruption. Transparency International ranks Mexico as 126th out of 180 countries in its 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index.

Noah Hurowitz told me that the number one secret to El Chapo’s success as a drug trafficker was impunity.

“Like many drug traffickers he was able to operate for a very long time and be very successful due to a level of impunity in Mexico that ensured that drug traffickers could get very rich. He was known for having strong relationships with members of the security forces in areas he needed to smuggle drugs through,” Hurowitz said.

In addition to the violence carried out by Sinaloa Cartel gunmen, another part of El Chapo’s legacy is the corrosive effect of drug money on institutional strength.

“He was effective because of corruption. El Chapo had really strong contacts within the Mexican state. El Chapo could operate without any true fear of being captured,” Hurowitz explained.

Overall, it may be more helpful to think of El Chapo as a politically protected power broker than as an outlaw. One thing the Sinaloa Cartel is known for is their business-like approach to extorting companies in the legal economy. One insight about their influence is the fact that they are known for being able to protect legal businesses from low-level criminals and robbers but also from government inspectors and officials.

Another aspect of El Chapo’s legacy is impunity.

An astounding 99.9 percent of all murders in Sinaloa go unsolved, meaning that cartel gunmen rarely face investigations or arrests after shootouts or attacks on rivals. Overall, the World Justice Project ranks Mexico as 116th out of 142 countries in its 2023 Rule Of Law Index. According to the Global Organized Crime Index, Mexico is now considered to be the world’s highest risk country for extortion.

Sinaloa is one of the worst hotspots in Mexico for carjacking and the worst state in Mexico for the percentage of car thefts that involve violence. Sinaloa recorded 1,775 violent carjackings in 2023 and is the third highest risk state in Mexico for violent carjackings (per capita).

Sinaloa is one of the top hotspots in Mexico for violent carjacking. In terms of violent carjackings ... [+]

Nathaniel Parish Flannery

Because of weak law enforcement capacity and high levels of impunity we don’t know exactly who is doing this carjacking in Sinaloa, but a general trend in Mexico is that organized crime groups often steal cars such as Volkswagen Jettas and Toyota Hiluxes to be used in criminal operations such as kidnappings or armed assaults on rivals. (It is important to note, however, that unlike organized crime groups in other states in Mexico, gunmen from the Sinaloa Cartel have not diversified into hijacking cargo trucks. Mexico’s federal government recorded only two cargo truck hijacking incidents in Sinaloa in 2023. By contrast, Mexico State recorded 3,634!)

One other aspect of El Chapo’s legacy is economic development.

Over the past few years we’ve seen huge growth in cash transfers from the U.S. to Mexico. Remittance payments nearly doubled from $34 billion in 2018 to $67 billion in 2023.

It’s very likely that this surge is partially driven by drug cartels moving money back from the U.S. to Mexico. So, this surge of income for Mexico is also part of El Chapo’s legacy.

Many foreigners may be surprised at the level of recent economic development and investment in Culiacan. Culiacan’s economy appears to be booming with significant new investments in hotels, shopping malls, restaurants, and residential real estate developments.

I recently visited the most exclusive cemetery in Culiacan: the Jardines del Humaya. Something that really stands out is that both powerful narcos and local elite business owners are buried there.

The families have built incredibly ornate shrines which cost hundreds of thousands of dollars. Some have Roman columns and look like mini Ivy League university buildings. Others are hyper-modern and made from glass and steel.

When you are inside the cemetery you may see well-dressed, wealthy locals visiting the graves of deceased family members. You really can’t tell who is a narco and who is an empresario.

Something I heard when I was in Sinaloa is that wealthy narcos now send their children to the same schools as the children of Culiacan’s traditional business elites. I went and saw the condo that El Chapo’s son, Ovidio, lived in before he was captured. It does seem like very tight ties have been built between the illegal and legal businesses in Sinaloa. A lot of the commercial and residential real estate developments in Sinaloa are likely to be the beneficiaries of drug money.

When we talk about Sinaloa, it’s important to note that El Chapo’s drug money has been a tremendous catalyst for economic development in the state.

“The drug trade has injected money into the legal economy of Sinaloa. Culiacan is a city where there is a lot of money [and] some of that comes from people selling opium, marijuana, and now fentanyl,” Hurowitz told me.

Forbes