The Consequences of capturing Hector Beltran Leyva

 Borderland Beat  Translated into English- republished from La SillaRota

By Víctor Manuel Sánchez Valdés  

Hector Beltran Leyva was part of the Sinaloa cartel until 2008, when his brother Arturo Beltran Leyva decided to sever the connection with the criminal organization, believing that Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman and Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada gave up his brother Alfredo Beltrán Leyva "The Mochomo" to Mexican authorities. 

While the betrayal of Chapo and Mayo was never proven, this fact led to the creation of the Beltran Leyva Cartel, who from that time operated in the states of Sinaloa, Sonora, Chihuahua, Nayarit, Guerrero, Morelos, State of Mexico, Mexico City, Oaxaca, Puebla, Michoacán, Nuevo Leon and Quintana Roo.

The role of Hector Beltran Leyva in Sinaloa cartel and the cartel of the Beltran Leyva, was that of a financial trader and liaison with suppliers of cocaine in Colombia, for example, he assumed investments and laundering the proceeds of the criminal activities of his brothers.

Throughout the years, Hector tried to keep a low profile, far from the front lines, but in the gloom of his brother Arturo Beltran Leyva alias "El Barbas" by the staff of the Navy of Mexico on  December 16^th,  2009, forced him to take command of the Beltran Leyva cartel.

The rise of the Beltran Leyva cartel was head spinning,  but the death of Arturo Beltran Leyva and the subsequent capture of several members of the organization, undermined its operational capacity. 

Among the key members of the organization who have been captured are: Jose Gerardo Alvarez Vazquez "El Indio" , arrested on  April 21, 2010 in Mexico State Huixquilucan, Edgar Valdez Villarreal , "La Barbie" was arrested on August 30, 2010 in the municipality of Lerma in the State of Mexico, Sergio Villarreal Barragán "El Grande", arrested on September 12, 2010 in the city of Puebla, Carlos Montemayor Gonzalez "El Charro" , arrested on  November 23,  2010 in Mexico City and José Jorge Balderas Garza "JJ", arrested on January 18, 2011 in Mexico City.

The rapid succession of captures of the main leaders of the Beltran Leyva cartel, led to a fragmentation of the organization first two groups, one led by Edgar Valdez Villarreal, the other by Hector Beltran Leyva himself, which in turn were split into dozens of smaller groups; los Rojos, los Guerreros Unidos,  Mano con Ojos,  Barredora,  Cártel Independiente de Acapulco, la Oficina, Cártel del Centro, Cártel de la Sierra, los Mazatlecos and  la Nueva Administración [1] . 


Although the cell division of these groups, the Beltran Leyva cartel survived as an organization, even some of the new groups are linked to it, but now operate with greater autonomy.

Despite this, Beltran Leyva Cartel has lost influence and not the size of other criminal organizations such as the Sinaloa Cartel or Los Zetas, the importance of this criminal group, lies in the following aspects: 

1) It is a of the few criminal organizations of this country, which has direct connections with criminal groups that produce cocaine in Colombia 

2) has a drug distribution network in the United States 

3) has a presence in several states of the country

4 ) Has a web of alliances, including  Los  Zetas, the Juarez Cartel, the Tijuana Cartel and recently with the Jalisco Cartel New Generation.

The capturing Hector Beltran Leyva yesterday in the city of San Miguel de Allende Guanajuato, is a further blow in addition to the above, which threatens to undermine the operational capacity of Beltran Leyva Cartel.  And in the medium term, can have a positive effect on reducing violence in several parts of the country; however, this capture can generate violence in the short term in several states in Mexico because the void left by Hector Beltran in the direction of the organization, can be played by several actors.

The person who is in a better position to take control of the Beltran Leyva drug cartel, is Fausto Isidro Meza Flores alias "El Chapo Isidro”, who for years directed the main armed group in the organization, which is called "Los Mazatlecos ", which has a presence in several municipalities of Sinaloa, Mazatlán, Guasave, Ahome, Salvador Alvarado, Choix and  Concordia,  also in southern Sonora,  Baja California Sur, Chihuahua and Nayarit.

In a bid for the leadership of the organization, Isidro Meza has several elements in his favor:

 1) Directs the strongest of the Beltran Leyva cartel armed wings, giving him a greater ability to eliminate potential competitors

2) He has connections with suppliers of cocaine in Colombia and drug dealers in the United States, therefore, has an important revenue stream

 3) Has a direct relationship with the Los Zetas, and with Juarez Cartel and Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación, which allows for reinforcements in case of a conflict

4) It is related to many of the factions of the Beltran Leyva cartel, but not all.
 

Despite the above, one cannot rule out a scenario in which there are groups within the Cartel Beltran Leyva, who disagree with Isidro Meza assuming the  leadership of the organization, in fact, the structure of this criminal group, makes this hypothesis is very doable. 

The cartel of the Beltran Leyva operates through decentralized units, ie, it is actually an amalgam of local smaller organizations, which have their own activities and territories, but also work together when necessary.

Within criminal groups currently in the Beltran Leyva cartel are the following: Mazatlecos (or Cartel Guasave) operating in Sinaloa,  Sonora, Chihuahua, Nayarit and Baja California Sur, la Oficina having influence in Aguascalientes, Jalisco and  Baja California Sur, los Rojos, in  Morelos, Guerrero and  Estado de México, Guerrero.

From the previous paragraphs several scenarios emerge: the first is that Isidro Meza or someone else will take control of the Beltran Leyva cartel without the need for too much violence. 

The second scenario is that Isidro Meza himself or another person, gaining control of the criminal organization, but having done so, after a bloody struggle between two or more factions, in this scenario, it is likely that cities like Mazatlan, Guasave, Cuernavaca, Acapulco, Iguala and Chilpancingo experience large increases in the levels of violence. 

A third scenario is that the Beltran Leyva Cartel was again fragmented into several smaller groups, which also involves the confrontation between various factions in the territories that now control the groups that make up that organization.

It cannot be excluded that the arrest of Hector Beltran Leyva,  will result in other criminal groups like the Sinaloa Cartel, or Guerreros Unidos, will seize an opportunity to contest the control of the areas that now dominated by the Beltran Leyva Cartel. 

In this context, the areas most at risk of raids by other criminal groups are northern Sinaloa, southern Sonora, the northern part of Guerrero, Morelos state and the southern portion of Mexico State. 

In summary, there is a significant probability that after the arrest of Hector Beltran Leyva, outbreaks of violence generated in the short term, in the states of Guerrero, Morelos, Sinaloa, Sonora, Chihuahua and the State of Mexico, as well as lesser extent in Nayarit, Baja California Sur, Michoacán and Oaxaca. 

This is why the Mexican authorities must generate a strategy of containment, as to anticipate possible conflicts in sensitive areas and protect citizens affected by internal conflicts of the Cartel or territorial disputes of this organization other criminal groups.

 [1]      Some of these groups were dismantled and no longer have operational capacity.