Monday, June 22, 2020

18 Month AMLO Admin: Murders include 5,800 women and 1,800 minors, breaking all homicide records, not even close

Chivis Martinez Borderland Beat  La Silla Rota

AMLO's failed strategy of "Hugs not Bullets" has had a devastating effect throughout Mexico.  Violence, murder, mayhem has broken all records, and not in a good way.....In the first year and a half of his government, the homicide rate doubles that of Calderón and is 55% higher than with EPN. And there could be underreporting.


This month 4 young entrepreneurs gunned down at their custom car shop-Celaya

In the first 18 months of the government of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, 53,628 people were murdered in Mexico, including more than 5,800 women and 1,800 children and adolescents. On average, almost 100 people are murdered every day in the current administration. It is the first year and a half of the most violent government so far this century.

The murder rate is double, for example, that registered in the same period of Felipe Calderón, and is 55% higher than with former President Enrique Peña Nieto.

But more recent comparisons also test the advance of violence in Mexico.

Homicides of men, women, and children are higher than in the year and a half prior to AMLO's arrival. And in this same administration, from 2019 to 2020, homicidal violence continues to rise even though it has been at record levels for a long time.

In which it was promised that it would be the period of "hugs not bullets"  where according to the president, "the war was over", 7 out of 10 murders have been committed with firearms. At least 60% of crimes are linked to organized crime activities and, above all, to their territorial disputes.

There are six states that concentrate half of the murders, but the epicenter of violence is Guanajuato, an entity where homicides have increased fivefold, and where police, students, pregnant women and children are also killed in attacks with weapons and even with grenades.

Neither the deployment of the National Guard, nor the legalization of the armed forces on the street and the new security strategy have prevented the violence from growing. This year alone, police, military, judges and also legislators have been assassinated.

The government has failed to capture criminal leaders and one, "El Chapo" Guzmán's son, was released by the president.


Messing with the stats

The violence could be worse than the official records indicate. Proof of this is the last update of the figures of intentional homicides carried out on June 20, where 172 homicides "appeared" in January 2020 that were not reported at the time, a modification that far exceeds the normal adjustments that month by month are made.

The victims include 5,811 women, representing an average of 11 women murdered per day (including homicide and femicide cases). There are also 1,807 children under 17 years of age among the victims, equivalent to three children or adolescents killed every 24 hours. Official records show 10,430 cases where the victim's age is not precisely known, and 1,308 where the sex of the victim is not clear (some cases correspond to remains in clandestine graves). 

Homicidal violence has increased. In the same period of a year and a half prior to that carried out by AMLO, that is, from December 2016 to May 2018, 45 thousand 581 murders were registered. It is about 8 thousand homicides below those that go in the 18 months of this sexennium (presidential terms in Mexico are 6 years). The murder rate between the two periods grew from 36.9 to 42.5 cases per one hundred thousand inhabitants.

During this period, the murders of men grew, but also those of women, which went from 5 thousand 17 to 5 thousand 811, and those of minors, which rose from 1 788 to 1 807. Compared to the start of the other three six-year terms, that of López Obrador is also the most violent.

Statistics show the following: in the first 18 months of this six-year term, 44,882 files have been initiated for intentional homicide, a rate of 35 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. This is equivalent to an increase of 55% with respect to the rate of 22.4 cases registered in the first year and a half of the Peña Nieto government; a rise of 137.6% over the rate of 14.7 homicides with Felipe Calderón; and 72.5% on the rate of 20.3 homicides at the start of Vicente Fox.

The war zones

There are six states where practically half of the more than 53 thousand murders registered with López Obrador are concentrated. Guanajuato leads the list with 5 thousand 745 victims in the period. This means that in this entity alone, at least 1 in 10 of the murders reported throughout Mexico have occurred.

They are followed by the state of Mexico, which has 4,337 homicide victims; Baja California with 4,285; Jalisco with 3 thousand 998; Chihuahua with 3,856 intentional homicides; and Michoacán with 3 thousand 271.

Colima is an especially serious case since it registers 312 homicides in the first year and a half of this six-year term, below other states. However, as it is an entity with a small population, its intentional homicide rate shoots up to 144.5 cases in the period, the highest in the country.

At the regional and municipal level, the security cabinet has identified 20 points where the highest rates of violence are registered. That is where the deployments of the National Guard and other security forces have been focused.

However, despite this, violence does not subside. Of those 20 points, in 12 the murder rate has grown in 2020 compared to 2019. There are dramatic cases such as that of Celaya, Guanajuato, where the rate doubled from 15 to 35.4 homicides, or that of Zamora, Michoacán that shot up from 12.4 to 42.3, or that of Cajeme, Sonora, which grew from 18.9 to 34.3.

60 to 80 Percent are attributed to organized crime

The security cabinet estimates that 60% of homicides in Mexico are linked to organized crime, but in the most violent areas such as Guanajuato or Jalisco, the calculation is up to 80%. Territorial warfare between criminal groups is one of the main engines of this violence the government has implemented actions to try to capture leaders of these groups, but they have failed.

An example was the failed operation of October 17, 2019 in which Ovidio Guzmán, one of the sons of Joaquín “el Chapo” Guzmán, leader of the Sinaloa Cartel, was detained for a few minutes. However, the forces of this criminal group outnumbered the officers and even took the military hostage. President López Obrador ended up ordering the release of the criminal and even so, 13 deaths were recorded.

Another example is the various unsuccessful attempts to arrest "El Marro", leader of the Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel in Guanajuato. Specialists indicate that this led to the strengthening of rival groups in the state such as the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación which has intensified fighting in the state.

Balances of Terror

In the year and a half that goes by the current government, there have been episodes of extreme violence, similar to those of past six-year periods. Multihomicides have been frequent.

These include, for example:

The murder of 29 people at the “Caballo Blanco” bar in Coatzacoalcos, Veracruz, who was attacked with bullets and then burned on August 28, 2019;

The massacre at a party in Minatitlán, Veracruz on April 13 of that year that left 13 dead, including a child

Or the recent murder of seven people at another party in Tierra Blanca, Veracruz, on May 30, 2020.

In Guanajuato, homicides are counted by dozens almost every day. Just to cite the most recent cases: the shooting of eight youths in Apaseo el Alto on May 19; the crime of 4 students assaulted by bullets in a workshop in Celaya and the massacre of ten young people in a rehabilitation center in Irapuato, both on June 6; or the recent murder of 6 members of a family, including a girl and a pregnant young woman, also in Celaya, on June 18.

Guanajuato is the entity with the most police officers killed

The last case was the murder of three municipal police officers on June 11 in Silao. But there are also high-impact cases in other states, such as the recent murder of the Zamora Police Chief, Michoacán, and a police commander on June 17.

One of the worst crimes against the security forces was the ambush of a convoy of the Aguililla, Michoacán police on October 4, 2019. In the end, 13 policemen lost their lives.

The violence has also reached other authorities. Among the recent cases are the murder of a federal judge and his wife on June 16 in Manzanillo, Colima; or the femicide of a local deputy in that same state whose body was found in a grave in early June, weeks after being kidnapped.

The murders of women due to gender issues, that is, the femicides, have been numerous. Among them is that of Ingrid Escamilla, a young woman murdered on February 9 in Mexico City. The violence of her murder and the display of the images generated commotion and sparked several protests.

But violence against women has continued. In the middle of March 8, International Women's Day, the student of the Iberoamerican University Nadia Verónica was assassinated in Salamanca, Guanajuato.

“Official” under-registration?

In previous years, citizen organizations have questioned the accuracy of the official figures reported by the states to the SESNSP. Cases such as that of Veracruz were documented in the government of Javier Duarte, which reported no more than 200 homicides in a year, adding them to the registry in subsequent months.

The current SESNSP administration last year audited the records of various states and the way they report crimes. The results have not been made public, but authorities with knowledge of the process indicated to Animal Político that important anomalies have been found.

In each monthly update, revisions are made to the figures of previous periods and in the case of homicides, there are often adjustments that range from two or three homicides to 20 or 30 of them. However, in the last update published this Saturday, June 20, a significant modification can be seen.

According to this update, in January 2020, 2,999 victims of intentional homicide were registered. However, prior to this new publication, the figure for that month was 2,819 murders. That is, these are 172 new murders that had not been reported so far.

This change also reverses the alleged decrease in homicides originally reported by federal authorities at the start of the year.

40 comments:

  1. So it's safe to say, AMLO's strategy isn't working? And isn't going to work?

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    Replies
    1. Of course it wont work. You can't appease criminals.

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    2. Must have law and order

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    3. He needs to declare war against the cartels asap and stop being so weak

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  2. It used to be Brazil the highest murder rate in the world, MEXICO has tipped 4 years in a row, Obrador and his cabinet are enpt at curtailing the homicides, bribe money is what they care more, before leaving office.

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  3. https://diariomexico.com/video-en-donde-la-gente-de-el-ruso-le-quitan-algo-de-su-cuerpo-a-masculino/

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  4. when you tell people that support Obrador that Mexico hasnt gotten any better, theyre quck to say "well hes not gonna make things better right away" but yet barely into 1 year and 6 months out of 6 years, crime surpassed that of the previous 2 presidents. by now things shouldve been atleast a little better but they arent. it is crazy that the crime rate during the presidency of a man who supposely ended the war, who refuses to use any act of violence can be waaaay higher than the crime rate during the presidency of the man who used the military, deployed it all over mexico and ordered them to fight. and yet his supporters will still blame calderon and epn on why Lopez's plan hasnt shed not even the slightests indication of good news regarding crime. theyre just like Trump supporters blaming Obama for everything.

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    Replies
    1. 100% correct. AMLO supporters are the defintion of willfully blind sheep

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    2. * Just My Opiniion *

      Your so freaking Funny ha ha ha Obama did do alot of STUPID STUFF
      HA HA Not one dawm thing for Blacks Man you should really read and learn more

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    3. Hi Anonymous,

      I am a supporter of AMLO, and I do not consider myself a blind sheep. Have you heard about fast and furious? Does he control the municipal police or the state police? there is a lot of corruption in the Mexican states. For example, there are a lot of Mexican Governors that support the cartels. So this is the fault of AMLO? Also, if something happens in Jalisco, it is the fault of AMLO or the State Governor?

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    4. the one who should read is you, if you read closely you will realize that I am not talking about what Obama did and didnt do, the way his administration handled politics doesnt even come to the conversation, all I am doing is pointing out the similiarities of both current presidents and their supporters,that when they realize their ideas are not going to work and they fail to meet expectations, they are quick to blame their failure to the past president.


      as of Obama and whatever stupid thing he did and what he didnt do for the blacks, thats a whole different subject you added not me I wasnt even praising him or defending him, you can trash talk about him I dont care, both Liberals and conservatives are a bunch of morons obsessing over eachother and how to make eachother look more stupid than they already are. Left wing and right wing yet both sit on the same dodo.

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    5. Maybe they should re-think their position on Capitol Punishment.. Sorry for using common damn sense...

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    6. I voted for ALMO, can I take my vote back?

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  5. Hey chivis, you can add mexicos coronavirus slow response to amlos death tolls I think. By the way what's your update on covid and your husband being over there as well?

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    Replies
    1. Long story, he is 'ok' Beijing is experiencing a new serious outbreak, so it is in lockdown. thank you for asking. I think AMLO has some culpability also. At a time when we knew much more and U.S. was quarantined he was out encouraging people to go out to eat

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    2. Thanks chivis and glad your husband is doing well since china I know can get dangerous if they suspect of a foreigner. Don't know if you remember me but a couple months ago, I wrote you about how I was new to having a rental property and how I feared my renters would stop paying rent. Wanted to tell you that I might be one of the lucky ones but all my renters have been paying in full even if a little late and I do not charge late fees if they are. Thanks a lot for the help on all that.

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    3. Chivis,

      We have to consider that there is a lot of poverty in Mexico. AMLO did not had the luxury to go on quarantined at the time because Mexico do not have the resources, like the United States. For instance, imagine the people that sell in the streets every day to survive. It would have been worse if he would have closed the economy, right away. I believed a lot of people would have die of hunger.

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    4. I respectfully disagree. He himself said he wasn't worried for Mexico. And when the U.S. was in quarantine he was doing promos at resturants. I repjublished one here when he was in oaxaca encouraging everyone to go out to eat.

      you have to follow covid closely around the world, I did and wrote about Mexico and the US. I guess he thought the wall would stop it. Just Kidding...

      Look I was in support of giving him time and not criticie. how anyone can see what has happened under his administration and not call foul is beyond me. Not one person in Mexico that I am related to, know, or work with supports him. Not one now. But they shrug it off as if to say they weren't holding their breath

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  6. The more bullets the more hugs needed.

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  7. How is the Mexican government, democratic, better than communist places like Vietnam and China? There, you're in trouble if you run afoul of the central authority. In Mexico, you're in danger if you run afoul of the cartels and law enforcement. At least in communist countries and authoritarian places like Singapore and Saudi Arabia, criminal organizations can't carve out lawless fiefdoms and murder with impunity.

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  8. GEEZ!. I assume AMLO by not arrest capo's was hoping capo's would keep crime in check EPIC FAIL.

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  9. I warned you guys many times what was going to happen under this President....its the same thing in the liberal cities in the US....criminal cowards always take advantage when weakness is shown....you have to show overwhelming power with the willingness to use it.

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    Replies
    1. u r right good meaning Libs want to do whats right, Criminals take advantage. Criminals do not follow the Rule of law

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    2. Yep
      I think maybe Making New Laws
      or what Ever Mexican Presidents can do to slow this down
      with Millions and Millions stolen from the people of Mexico
      Its a shame they dont Rise and demand better wages etc
      I dispise the misuse of public funds and the The B.S that Mexico is a poor country "Its Not""
      wages are bad houseibg roads etc because the Lords over tbe people are Stealing

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  10. Here come AMLO´s nut riders claiming everything is a compló from Calderon.

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  11. la violencia no se podra detener en un dia ni un año se necesitan condiciones de estabilidad y seguridad de empleo trabajo y educacion, mientras se tenga outsourcing, sanciones a nuestro comercio y muchos viciosos del otro lado de la frontera esto continuara por mucho tiempo

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  12. First it needs to be said that Amlo himself is not causing the murders. They are happening for reasons that are directly out of his control (economics, cartel politics, territorial ambitions etc).

    Second "Hugs Not Bullets" is completely misinterpreted by everyone who is predisposed to dislike him and his policies (which is fine, some PANista values like entreprenuership and business friendlyness are appropriate in some places in the country).

    But Hugs Not Bullets does not mean coddling drug cartels...
    it simply points to the fact that people getting killed are mostly, young poor and campasino kids... many the sons and daughters of the families desparately searching for them...

    Hugs Not Bullets means the government is in most cases not going to seek out and ATTACK these kids... though it will/should (to the greatest extent the state is able) to protect the innocent.

    Instead try to lure them away from crime... Los Mijis said he did it in SLP buy simply by paying them more to paint houses than hold a gun and be target

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  13. Guess no law in Mexico, is murder ok under Amlo???????

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    Replies
    1. We accept the homicides, its the way It will be i guess for ever.

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    2. Hmmm....Blaming Amlo for these murders is like blaming Ford for car crashes. Imo

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  14. Leadership in Mexico is none exist

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  15. After living in Mexico for over 25 years, this is common place and the people accept it.

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    Replies
    1. "And the people accept it"
      I dont think they accept it. They have no means to escape. Local and state cops are co-conspirators in many cases. I get what you're saying I guess I just don't like the word accept.

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  16. Ok totally agree on amlo showin weekness to the cartels wont work, but lets be honest the reason why you see more deaths with amlo than with calderon and epn is because they always underplayed the real death and you are also counting the new mass graves as dead people for amlo when a lot of those dead happen when epn was the president, no estoy disculpando a amlo porque el guey a luegas se ve que no save que haser con tanta violencia pero quien puede detener esto? Los unicos que pueden detener todo ese desmadre son los mismos mexicanos pero eso no va a pasar, somos muy ignorantes y yo me cuento ahi porque si ahi la chansa de transear yo tranceo

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  17. mexico/US need to label cartels as terrorist groups and wipe them out so Mexican citizens can live in peace

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  18. 11:11
    See you made the comment FIRST and named a President I replied to your statement Next time dont name NAMES

    one its not wanted here as one of the Rules But to try to sit on the right side of your statement is truely so self rightoues Your what we call a self centered Gotta be right and you think Your Perfect Jamming your thoughts down others with out true proof You Parrot with saying NOTHING
    THIS is Not about You
    this is the War in Mexico Killing Murders drugs Greed etc
    The Mexican people The Innocents that have to deal with living in a WAR ZONE
    So Get Over Yourself Go back to work instead of collecting Free Cks
    you really dont matter as much as yiu think compared to These People living in hell and have no power to get free of it

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  19. To the Borderland Beat follower who sent a message in for MX..great info! I passed to Mx. could you please email me or Mx? strictly confidential thank you

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  20. "Hugs not bullets" plus the U.S "War on Drugs = 5800 dead women and 1800 dead kids.

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  21. worst president in the history of mexico. I wonder how much the chapos are paying him?

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  22. Relax. The all-out war was a failure because the Government itself was Narco (Pena Nieto, Calderon, all the way to Gortari).
    Count the deaths this way: How many of the dead are Narco related and how many innocent civilians have been killed.
    The Narco members related deaths do not count; it's a step forward.

    ReplyDelete

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