Saturday, March 24, 2018

The Drug War Debate Reshapes Mexican Politics

Posted by DD Republished from OXY
 
MEXICO DF. (appro) .- The afternoon was declining, but not the mood of the people who waited in the streets for about two hours to see Andrés Manuel López Obrador pass

When Mexican presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the leftist National Regeneration Movement (Morena) proposed amnesty for cartels in December to end the country’s drug war, he drew sharp criticism from multiple stakeholders. But three months later, he retains his lead for the July 1 elections. He hasn’t retracted his proposal. His critics haven’t backed off. A deepening divide is shaping the discourse ahead of the upcoming polls.

Current President Enrique Peña Nieto of the centrist Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which has ruled Mexico for most of the past century, has said that amnesty would be a betrayal of the country. The conservative National Action Party (PAN) has mocked Obrador’s proposal, calling him confused. And many parents of the more than 200,000 men and women killed in the drug war over the past decade have challenged the suggestion of amnesty. Last year — 2017 — was the deadliest of the past 10 years, with 25,000 killed. If Obrador wins, he says, his administration would consider amnesty “when and if it includes the support of the victims.”

"You have to rebuild the social fabric."  Nancy Garcia Fregoso, adviser to Mexico’s Electoral Tribunal of the Federal Judiciary. 

 But recent surveys by reputed polling firm Parametria show that while 30 percent of the country’s citizens think amnesty would increase crime, an exact same number think it would help curtail violence. And 43 percent of respondents said that the cartels “do more public works in communities than the government,” while 42 percent disagreed — highlighting a deep distrust in government. 

Obrador’s proposal for amnesty isn’t giving him an edge, but Colombia’s example — 100,000 people associated with the drug trade reentered the mainstream after the country’s milestone peace pact with the left-wing rebel Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) last year — is increasingly also echoing in Mexico.


Since the presidency of Felipe Calderón of the PAN starting in 2006, Mexico has adopted a military-first approach to tackling drug cartels. It is an approach that has resonated for large periods of the past decade with a nation angry at the bloodletting of the drug cartels. Calderón’s successor, Peña Nieto, constituted a National Gendarmerie to battle the cartels.

Not atypically for a seasoned politician — Obrador is contesting for the country’s top post for the third time — the reality of his platform is a lot more nuanced than some of his public pronouncements. He has held up the ongoing violence — including almost 19,000 executions by organized crime in 2017, according to public policy analysis firm Lantia Consultores — as evidence that the old approach is failing. His campaign document, called the Project of the Nation 2018–2024, promises to break with armed conflict, reform the country’s crowded and corrupt prisons and focus on reintegration and alternative penal models for minor crimes. “The country’s penitentiary centers have become true schools of crime” reads the document. And “prioritizing intelligence over force” is a theme that runs through the document. At the same time, though, he has proposed creating a National Guard of more than 200,000 soldiers and 50,000 navy servicemen and women. It is unclear how this force would be any different from the one Peña Nieto instituted. 

And amnesty won’t be easy to accomplish. It would require the passage of a law that clearly defines the advantages for the government, the criminals and society at large. It would also require temporary enforcement measures to bring about what is known as “transitional justice,” says Garcia Fregoso.

But Obrador’s proposal has sparked a debate that continues to rage as a key political theme ahead of the presidential elections. The central argument against unconditional amnesty has been that of victims’ human rights, including their right to justice. “Granting amnesty for serious crimes is against international law where victims’ right to justice must be granted,” says Pascal Hubatka, a human rights consultant based in Mexico City. Victims and their families have a right to justice, reparations and to know the truth about what happened to their loved ones, he adds.

In Mexico, justice — and not just for victims of the drug war — has long proven elusive. According to the country’s National Institute of Statistic and Geography, 94 percent of all crimes go unreported, and only about 1 percent are punished by jail. And to some families of those killed in the drug war, Obrador’s proposal is akin to rubbing salt on wounds. “Can you in good conscience ask us to forget the victims, especially the victims of the disappearings, who still haven’t found their loved ones?” Javier Sicilia, poet, activist and father to Juan Francisco, who was killed in 2011, wrote in an open letter in January.

 Political opponents too continue to criticize Obrador. PAN leader Damián Zepeda says the Morena presidential candidate is “confused about the solutions that Mexico requires to confront the problems of corruption, violence and education.” Meanwhile, Alfonso Durazo, Morena’s candidate for public security secretary, has insisted on national television that amnesty is a viable option, citing the example of Colombia.


Amlo is 1st in the polls.  Maybe the third time is the charm
A poll of polls by Mexican agency Oraculus in February concluded that Obrador stood a 99 percent chance of winning if the elections were held then. Every poll since then has only backed the assessment that he remains in the lead ahead of the upcoming elections. But as Peña Nieto and Calderón found, ending the drug war is harder than winning the presidency. The growing rift in Mexico on how best to approach drug cartels won’t make it any easier. 

Note DD.  
 Three presidential candidates running as Independents had collected the required 866,593 signatures to be on the ballot, but Mexico's election regulator (INE) ruled that 3 million signatures could not be verified. 
That left left-leaning Armando Rios Piter and former Gov. Jaime Rodriguez off the ballot and handing Margarita Zavala, former President Felipe Calderon's wife, barely enough signatures to participate in July's election, regulators said.

INE, described the high percentage of unsubstantiated signatures the majority of those collected as resulting from fake voter IDs and invalid photocopies of real IDs. 

 Jaime Rodriguez, better known as Bronco, was the first Independent to be elected Governor in Mexico in 2015.  He was also the only non-Pri candidate to ever be elected Governor of the state of Nuevo Leon and he won by more than 50% of the votes in a crowded field.  After the announcement INE that he was not elgible to be on the ballot Bronco told the press that "it wouldn't have made any difference if I had gotten a million signatures the powers that be would not allow me to be on the ballot and have a chance to be President of Mexico." 

41 comments:

  1. Amnesty for drug trafficking is not amnesty for murdering, torturing or disappearing, it doesn't mean Amnesty international either, but rather leave the persecutions alone and let the narcos be, fight addiction with treatment, not with prison and murder, and of course, crimes of state are not to be forgiven or forgotten,
    In Colombia the guerrillas received amnesty and relocation and support, criminal AUC, milicos and paracos, corrupt police officers, most of them Alvaro Uribe velez' own criminals have confessed their crimes and took their sentences and are in prison for reduced sentences, condemned by Uribe himself who opposes amnesty, after colluding with all of Colombia's worst criminals for more than 30 years, because he wants it as it was, making him a billionaire in dollars.
    Same in mexico, the powers that be wold rather have the war on drugs that eliminates their competition and leaves them in control of the war and in control of the flow.
    The truth is that the Mexican government, it's police and melitary are worse than the narcos they seek to punish, eliminate or exploit.

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    1. The Mexican Government is in deep denial, that they are currupted, and together with the Cartel s. As long as money comes in thier pockets, they will continue to let people get killed, innocent or not.

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    2. 11:25 it is not American politicians that are being killed for the price of about 500 pesos or roughly the equivalent of 40 U.S. dollars if they do not comply with the cartels!!!
      "Plata o Plomo" only works in low income countries and all this so precious American lives can be spared ODs from consuming drugs!!!

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    3. @4:37pm First tell me where I can exchange 500 pesos for $40 US and I will be at their front door waiting for them to open for business Monday morning. Here in Mexico it more like a little over $25 US.

      You also need to explain to me how killing Mexican politicians who don't comply with the cartels help spare Americans from ODing from consuming drugs.

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    4. LOL Laughable. The Culture of Corruption is KING. You have to CHANGE the Culture of Cartels and those who work with them.

      Yes the cartels pay everyone off in government and in operating plaza.

      BUT their Silver or Lead policy give NO JUSTICE for those who actually HAVE ETHICS and MORALS..

      Those Saying NO are murdered and targeted!

      So this leftist president sounds like he is HEAD OF A CARTEL or Insane.

      There is no cartel member or collaborator that does not HAVE BLOOD on their hands.

      The MINI GUN destroying the Convoy of Cartel is Policy that is needed.

      Cartel Sicarios have NO ethics, morals, values of society.

      They are death and worship death.

      So they NEED TO DIE

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    5. 1:43 and how are "miniguns" supposed to identify the Cartel members they are supposed to be killing?
      Hay que ser mamones, pero no tan pendejos,
      Cartel members usually work for the governors, polesia, and melitary zone commanders, while competing with other rival cartels that also work for the same dignitaries in government,
      --You could try and get the BIG NAMES of Mexican drug traffickers and stop worrying about the chump change...

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  2. There is zero equality between the FARC and Mexican cartels....apples to oranges.

    The FARC was a political entity led by a clear chain of command while the cartels are purely profit entities splintered by many different groups.

    I am not surprised that a very leftist politician doesn't know the difference......go ahead and elect such a person and in 4 years you will be worse off than Venezuela.

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    1. Colombia’s situation is apples to oranges with Mexico, but if Mexico elects a leftist they will end up like Venezuela. But if they continue on the same path, they will end up like????

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    2. Cartels are CAPITALISTS rebels.FARC are socialists .

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  3. What's any different from the amnesty the cartels operate under now?

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  4. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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    1. 9:56 the US pooliticians are criminals, legal grifa or not, they are burning holes in their pockets witht their desire for all that tax revenue that makes real mariguanos go back to illegal mota even for the hell of it, because being a pinchi mariguano has never been about "paying taxes to the MAN", fack that shit.

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  5. The only solution is legalization!

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    1. one solution is leave it alone, no taxes, maybe a small fee to help problem addicts and promote health for all.
      another is to tax the rich mariguanos and support the poor broke assed who believed grifa smoking was a healthy choice

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  6. Don't be so pessimistic. This presidential candidate has a good idea to offer this amnesty with the a return a stop at this bloodshed, it's a start. The last five presidents Administration all they did look away and receive all these bribes and not hold accountable nobody... look at the US already allowing legalized marijuana ...A billion dollar industry...Its all MONEY MY FRIEND it doesn't matter which side you're in Mexico or the USA. Does this make the US politicians criminals for legalizing this in the state level?

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    1. Good idea for whom?
      Mexico is dealing with an alarming rate for drug consumption among its citizens. Amnesty will not prohibit individuals from non- distribution of drug trafficking?
      It’s not rocket science to know that these high profile individuals will not favor their business profits from dwindling. Greed is the culprit here. Bloodshed will continue where ones livelihood is at stake.

      It’s just non- sense what’s being pitched. A political ploy to appeal to those who have vested interests!

      Ridiculous!
      E42

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    2. I fully agree @9:59. He offers better ideas then anyone else. Hopefully he succeeds

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    3. @1:21PM E-42 some of the details of AmLO's plan are not so far out. He is considering offering amnesty to cartel leaders if they disband their cartel and provide for some compensation for innocent victims. The members of the cartel will be offered reduced sentences for non drug offenses if they confess to their crimes. This would be done through a Truth Commission much like South Africa used after apartheid. (Mandela is one of his inspirations and someone he considers a great leader) So tell me who those are that have a vested interest in Mexico continuing down the same path it has for the last 40 or more years. The other 2 major candidates have done nothing but attack each other and promise to stop the violence, clean up corruption and eliminated poverty. But they have offered no plan for doing any of that. Nothing but their promises.

      The reason AMlo is leading in the polls by 14 or 15 points was best expressed by a man on the street interview ; "I am a little afraid of MANLO, but I am more afraid for my country if we continue the path the current politicians have been following. Maybe his ideas might work, I am willing to give him a try. I will vote for him". .

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    4. quien habla de Venezuela tratando de ponerlo en ridículo esta fuera de la realidad esta siendo manipulado por los medios en esa guerra mediática, característica de los grupos de poder, petroleros, industria armamentista etc. que tiene sometida a américa latina casi completa y quien se revela lo atacan llamándole dictador, y a los verdaderos traiores a su pueblo no les dicen nada como el reciente caso de PPk , el presidente peruano que mintió a su pueblo, al aceptar dinero por ventajas en contratos. de esos si son peor que Venezuela que acaba de entregar la vivienda 2'000 000. a su gente, mas que Francia , Que estados unidos, y México ni soñarlo por que aqui duplican donaciones y reviven difuntos que dicen cobran. ya quisieran un presidente que su delito es salirse del control de los los usureros del mundo como el FMI el BID. etc. y crean el Petro que si tiene respaldo económico en el petróleo, no asi el dolar moneda especulativa sin respaldo, que ya empieza a caer. Bolivia, Ecuador con Correa, Brasil con Lula, Argentina con los Kirchner. Pero no esta dispuesta la gran bota a perder influencia , ya recupera Argentina con un Macri, un Brasil con el títere Temmer, expulsando a un Celaya de Honduras, a Lugo del Paraguay. aplaudiendo a Santos y Peña de Colombia y México como sus perros fieles y se habia agregado el tal Kusinsky que pintaba como tal en ese cuadro de traidores, esos son los contrarios de Venezuela.. ¿ esos son sus ídolos ?

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    5. @ dd
      South Africa amnesty program is the broadest in history. The amnesty Committee was authorized to grant or refuse amnesty to individuals who committed human rights abuses.
      Clearly there is a differential here where criminal organizations / activities are not considered human rights abuses. Rather criminal! Where the sole purpose was controlling / eradication of distribution networks for financial purposes.
      Thus not racially motivated.

      If AMLO succeeds he will only provide a blanket for immunity for crimals. Weather by a reparations program for victims ( financially, symbolic or community reparations).
      These individuals ( criminals ) AMLO speaks of are why these atrocities were committed. Clearly by their hands and blessings!

      It’s a failed drug war dd. This is evident. Furthermore, a costly issue financially and with devastating consequences on both sides of the country. To believe rehabilitation will transpire from these individuals is a lie!
      You are a man of intellect dd. Moreover, respect your position to find a solution. Nevertheless, I truly believe it’s not the answer.

      Intellectual conversation is always welcomed.

      E42

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  7. Very interesting post dd.
    Like I stated before he has gained momentum in the polls. Mexico’s political theater has been engulfed with so much corruption for many, many years. Political machines like that of US which is virtually an impossible feat to overtake.

    Amnesty for these drug traffickers would not be welcomed by many nations. Moreover, a slap in the face to those countless victims and families who have been impacted by such.
    My opinion is that Mexico is currently transitioning to engage in this illegal behavior legitimately.
    Why should Mexico have any concerns of where or who consumes? A very profitable business for those involved. Furthermore, where violence would stem due to such transition. Criminal groups will have to fare with such associations. In other words still profiting but at a lower cost.
    Question? Will other nations ( especially US ) view this as a national threat to security and impose sanctions. Moreover, military actions?
    Truly hope that the citizens of Mexico will accept what’s morally correct and not otherwise.

    As for those who refute this notion of government controlled trafficking. Why else would one pitch what’s a morally wrong approach to the table?
    E42

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    1. The U.S. are the biggest drug consumers and are contributors to the drug culture. There are plenty of meth labs in the U.S. and people have been growing pot here forever. Trust me the U.S. is no pie in the sky. I think Mexicos new perspective President gives a light at the end of the tunnel.

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    2. La amnistia la veo de diferente forma. Es tal el poder por los ingresos del dinero que los cárteles se estan apropiando de lo mejor de la industria nacional, Turismo, metalurgia, combustibles, agricultura, hasta las aduanas, además de giros negros como prostitución, trafico de personas, órganos. es de tal magnitud su ingreso que corrompen, policía políticos, fuerzas armadas marina y ejercito que también es pueblo mal pagado, así delincuentes pobres se enfrentan a representantes de la ley pobres, destrozándose las capas mas vulnerables de la sociedad, que buscan dinero. esto no es fortuito es un gran plan que hay que estudiar para darlo a conocer, viendo el ejemplo de colombia

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    3. 8:55 the broke ass cartel members are not the ones with billions and billions OF DOLLARS in foreign banks, like Carlos Salinas de gortari and bunches and bunches of US citizens and the chinese that even bought Hong Kong from the british in exchange for the bank HSBC THAT WENT TO ENGLAND TO KEEP LAUNDERING THE MONEY MORE PROFESSIONALLY...
      cartels are a good option to have around and make them the fall guys...but we can see further than The Purple Haze...

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  8. If some former PRI governors currently locked up are Ever sent to USA and they Talk the PRI may never recover. Fatboy Duarte? And others. A. Zapata

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  9. Amnesty for cartel thugs is stupid!! Shows a lack of backbone and admitting a handful of thugs can topple the entire nation of Mexico. See the fight through to the end. If Colombia gave up halfway through, Escobar would still be alive today

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    1. @4:08PM After more than 200,000 (and probably a whole lot more) and no way of really knowing how many missing and hundreds of thousands displaced from their homes, it may be time to "admit a handful of thugs can topple the entire nation of Mexico." Existing strategies sure haven't worked to make Mexico secure from cartel violence.

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    2. More stupid allowing the US make Marijuana legal!

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    3. Do not confuse cartel thugs with the more beastly government sicarios that never get accused, prosecuted, or thrown in jail

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    4. We cannot let the horrors committed by these individuals be dismissed by a forgiven sentence!

      E42

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  10. I think he is right. The Bennie Sanders of Mexico. Mexico Lindo again

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  11. best idea I've heard yet. The people of Mexico need a plan and this will be it. I do not see anyone else coming up with any ideas. Just B.S. and more incarcerations and killings. That isn't the solution

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  12. As @7:31 said the cartels and FARC are apples to oranges. There isn't any real "feel" of patriotism or political gain (Especially in the Geopolitical spectrum as @11:03 stated) in granting amnesty to these,.. these, I can't even think of what to call this species of morally inept humanes that have caused maby more unparalleled fear and horror WORLD WIDE than anything else in the history of mankind. Am I going overboard ? I don't know. I think amnesty would have severe negative Global repercussions on Mexico as well as globally, think of the ripple effect. With the way our world is intertwined now politically and socially, this subject of amnesty for the very scurge of humanity on our planet is in My view: completely and utterly insane. It can not and will not happen. It's bigger than Just Mexico ., The users, the enablers, the distributers, the joe sixpack just doing life in his own world. We ALL are "in" on it even if You don't know it. What gives a criminal state the right to decide the fate of mankind ? (Too far ? Again.. I don't know). So maby the onus falls back on us all, not just the poor bastards who put that pipe to his lips or that needle in his arm or was prescribed an opiate ect.. So why oh why can't WE fix this ? Where are all these fuck'n geniuses at huhh ? Where ? This don't take no fuck'n genius ! Unless @9:57 is a genius. Legalize and frick'n deal with it ! The world might become worse.. Or could it really ? Again, this isn't a decision one country can make alone, this is life as we know it !! (Too far ? I don't know.)

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  13. “43 percent of respondents said that the cartels do more public works in communities than the government“

    Now THAT says it all: the root of the problem is the corruption of Mexicos political elite.

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    1. I can assure you that 90% will say they are a cancer to societies!
      Just because some narco puts on a big show, music and food for its town citizens doesnt make him a saint.
      Quite sure a taco will not do it for me to think saintly status of these individuals.

      E42

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  14. If this asshole wins the election , the USA wont be able to handle the refugee crisis . Dumb son of a bitch looks up to Castro and Chaves . He wants to live the lavish life of a dictator while his "subjects" live in poverty . POS

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    1. @2:52AM "He wants to live the lavish life of a dictator while his "subjects" live in poverty" I think you must be confused. Pena Nieto is not in this race.

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    2. @2:52
      There wouldn’t be a refugee issue. If AMLO were to succeed and implement an amnesty program.
      Can assure that those individuals backing ( The Wall ) will get it.
      Along with sanctions from world leaders for the morally incorrect approach. Think Mexico is struggling now? Citizens would be the ones suffering the most!
      A better approach is needed to combat a world wide epidemic.

      E42


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  15. DD . No confusion here . Mexicans may not have always had the greatest opportunity but you hadn't seen them trying to get to cuba to become part of that deal . Their best opportunity is and has always been in capitalist societies . Hell if mexico turns communist and pardons all the cartel Trump will get the wall . Probably high voltage . Then again the Mexicans would figure how to plug into it and power mexico .

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  16. AMLO is no different than the rest, he wants his pockets filled to give that amnesty baby !

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