Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Mexico Criminal Gangs Are Rational Actors

Written by Gordon Housworth
In Sight

Though notorious for their brutality, Mexico’s organized criminal groups are rational actors who respond to market dynamics. If they are not forced into a showdown or loss of face, their behavior can be influenced.

In the Mexican press, the prevailing narrative on organized criminal groups is one of irrationality, of crazed monsters on the loose, but the reality is the exact opposite. Yes, the criminal gangs’ methods are harsh and designed to compel compliance, but their intense violence and cruelty is driven by objectives that can, with expert guidance, be used to positively influence the threat they pose.

These groups are competing to prosper in a fragmenting and hyper-competitive market that has seen its primary market (drugs) placed under pressure. This has forced them to enter new markets, such as extortion of corporations and individuals, kidnapping, robbery and oil theft.

The leadership of these groups are actively trying to reduce both their own risk and their "costs of doing business," while maximizing profit.

How Mexican criminals mimic African warlords

Analysis of African “Blood Diamond” warlord behavior is directly applicable to that of Mexican criminal enterprises. The two groups share motives, methods, ferocity and absence of restraint. Both cartels and warlords are attempting to extract wealth from areas under their control while repelling competitors. In Africa it is mineral extraction. In Mexico it was transit rights to service the U.S. drug market, but has now diversified into wholesale extortion and other crimes. Writing in 2008:

Individuals are goal-oriented and adaptive, and will attempt to reach their goals by what they see as the easiest and least costly or most efficient means. (Rationality does not have to be a universally agreed-upon mindset.)...

"Blood diamonds" [is] a special case [of] resource-based means of civil war. To the degree that any primary extraction process can be sequestered by a powerful minority, the opportunity for conflict, extortion, and interruption rises. Coupling this concept with the fact that most wars today occur within nations rather than between them, the risk analysis of investing firms should be re-evaluated...

Collier and Hoeffler found that conflicts occur when rebels respond rationally to market opportunities, much as entrepreneurs and investors do. Civil wars that are so often blamed on chaotic, irrational ethnic, religious and communal feuds now have a unifying thread:

"Rebels need to meet a payroll without actually producing anything, so they need to prey on an economic activity that won't collapse under the weight of the predation... Natural resources is a good one. The same characteristics that make a commodity readily taxable -- that it's rooted to a spot, it can't move -- make it readily lootable, too."...


Negotiation short of warfare between opponents is extremely difficult, both for African warlords and Mexican traffickers, as there is no defined system to adjudicate grievances and no external entity to enforce compliance to agreements. The result is that the conflict groups take the least risky path of immediately attempting to eliminate their opponents in a winner-take-all effort. Again from 2008:

While most interstate wars end in a negotiated settlement, the majority of intrastate conflicts end with the extermination, expulsion, or complete surrender of one side. Civil wars with a communitarian or ethnic dimension are especially difficult to negotiate and the most likely to result in protracted strife, and, closely mapping to the African experience, often go on for years and sometimes decades. Szayna and Tellis note that the reason is straightforward:

"To end intrastate strife the warring sides must lay down arms and respect an agreement usually in the absence of a legitimate government and under conditions in which the agreement is generally unenforceable. In conditions of communitarian strife [it is] especially difficult for the two sides to go on coexisting in the same state. Put differently, there are only two main pathways for the regulation of ethnic conflict:

- Eliminating the differences (genocide, forced transfer of population, partition/secession, and integration/assimilation);

- Managing the differences (hegemonic control, arbitration by third party, federalization, and power-sharing)."

Because the trust that would allow for management of differences is absent once conflict starts, it is understandable that elimination of the differences becomes the preferred choice and that many ethnic and communitarian conflicts end up in prolonged and bloody strife, sometimes mixed in with attempts at genocide and complete elimination of the other side.

Criminal actions that appear irrational to the public generally have very sound operational and profit-driven motives.




Three converging threat trends

Three trends are currently combining in Mexico to put personnel and commercial assets at greater threat from criminal groups:

1) Territorial incursions and expulsions among cartels: Increasingly splintered criminal groups attempting territorial incursions and expulsions of their competitors. Such attempts are typically extremely violent.

2) Revenue expansion beyond drugs: Drug gangs are broadening their focus to extortion, both of individuals and corporations.

3) Increased willingness to target foreign nationals and firms: Growing effectiveness of formerly covert U.S-Mexican military cooperation is lessening cartel sensitivity to antagonizing the U.S.

Territorial struggles and splintering of violent groups

President Felipe Calderon’s effort to dismember the largest cartels by focusing upon their leadership has backfired. Deprived of senior leadership, second tier members have broken away and formed their own criminal groups.

These increasingly splintered criminal gangs are violently competing with both their former groups and other new groups, each attempting to penetrate competitors’ territory and expel the former owners. In some cases this has resulted in many entities fighting over smaller territories with increasing violence. The recent arson attack against the Casino Royale in Monterrey is being cited as one such extortion effort, but in early stages it is difficult to distinguish extortion from an effort to expel rival groups.

Revenue expansion beyond drugs

The post September 11 tightening of U.S. borders increased the cost of moving drugs to market. While significant quantities continue to get through, as evidenced by the stability of U.S. street prices, greater volumes have to be sent north to maintain that flow. Cartels soon discovered their own citizens as consumers, sparking a wave of drug addiction in Mexico. Selling within the country brings a lower street price, yes, but has lower costs with much less risk.

The next significant leap was institutionalized extortion of businesses large and small, as well as individuals. Largely unpublicized until now, this "tax" on commerce has reached epidemic proportions up and down Mexican supply chains. Thousands upon thousands of businesses have closed while the better financed have relocated, both businesses and their owners, to the U.S. Cartel responses to this last step have been to scour social networking sites to look for relatives still in Mexico who can be kidnapped for ransom against the fleeing owners.

Criminal enterprises have long infiltrated the petroleum sector and have now moved into penetrating commercial firms and their suppliers, to the point of taking over entire supply chains or taking revenue from large portions of the chain.

These more recent revenue streams have exhaustively targeted Mexican nationals. As the Mexican target set declines due to predation, closure and emigration, criminal groups will turn to foreign assets and those entities that have immobile fixed investments in the country.

Increased willingness to target U.S. nationals and firms

We have frequently commented on U.S. drone overflights of Mexican soil, including the March 16 observation, “Drones in various formats have been over Mexico for some time. What is new is the open admission coupled with deep penetration, multi-sensor efforts. Vetted sharing is also up.” it is clear that such missions are accelerating along a wide spectrum of communications, photographic, radar and signature intelligence collection.

This increasingly rich intelligence stream is being put to operational use by vetted, isolated silos of Mexican forces operating with U.S. intelligence, even launching from U.S. soil. A U.S. military officer said, “The military is trying to take what it did in Afghanistan and do the same in Mexico.”

This cooperation will inevitably increase direct criminal activity against foreign firms, including U.S. nationals and firms, which criminal groups have heretofore largely sought to avoid lest they draw U.S. retaliation. Once such "retaliatory" actions become common, these criminal groups will have less to lose in reacting to U.S. efforts and confronting foreign commercial assets.

Managing risks


The security situation in Mexico, and notably Monterrey, is deteriorating at an accelerating pace as threats worsen country-wide. Risks long keenly felt by Mexican nationals are becoming evident to foreign nationals and firms.

Criminal behavior must be influenced early, when groups are selecting their target. Cost and risk rise dramatically once your personnel and assets have been selected as targets. The worst days of Colombia saw security costs reaching as high as 50 percent of operating revenue.

Commercial firms have three options:

-Deflect (move hostile intent to another target)

-Defer (delay hostile efforts)

-Defend (interdict an incipient hostile attack)

Remember that these rational criminal actors are actively trying to reduce both their own risk and their "costs of doing business," while maximizing profit. As Defend is rarely a response option against such heavily armed opponents, commercial firms gravitate to Deflect and Defer.

Properly guided, potential targets (both enterprises and individuals) can take advantage of this ongoing feature of criminal planning and activity to make themselves less attractive than other potential targets under surveillance by these criminal groups.

Surveillance for target identification and selection has become more costly to criminal groups as their competitors ambush one another’s surveillance teams or track them back to their operating bases. Targets seen as predictable and less risky quickly rise up the targeting queue.

Criminal groups are rational actors whose actions can be influenced. A well designed systemic plan could help companies reduce the risks of operating in Mexico.

*Gordon Housworth is Managing Principal, Intellectual Capital Group LLC. Responsible for Risk Consulting & Competitive Intelligence (CI) - Geopolitical, Operational, Technology and Reputational.

21 comments:

  1. Pulling women and children off of buses to kill them has no market dynamic whatsoever. These are a bunch of sick fucks who should be exterminated.

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  2. who wrote this bullshit? Nothing rational about what is going on in Mexico...

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  3. The only reason these roaches are doing things like extortion, kidnapping, and oil tapping is because they are too dumb to deal drugs.. Haven't they seen the type of people the Zetas are recruiting? They are dumb, illiterate, crack heads that lack any type of logic or intelligence.
    Ex. El Barbie, he would move hundreds of pounds of cocaine from Acapulco to the US every year, the govt took him out (or turned himself in) and his organization went to shit. This was a small unit that would make millions a year by trafficking cocaine into the US. Now his former unit is fighting for scraps in Acapulco. Instead of following Barbies footsteps they are preoccupied with selling small quantities of drugs within the city, extorting money from businesses, and kidnappings. They are involved in high risk low return behavior, which explains why they are dropping like flies.
    Same thing can be said about the Zetas. Getting into the pirated CD business? seriously? Amado Carillo and other big drug lords are probably in hell laughing their asses off at these animals..

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  4. Since legalization of marijuana will force cartels to enter new markets, such as extortion of corporations and individuals, kidnapping, robbery and oil theft, should we legalize those as well?

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  5. This seriously may have been written by Obama...simply a nerdy law professor with no common sense. These are low life greedy groups acting in sheer desperation

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  6. I thought for a second the author was going to tell us that Mexicans and Africans are the same color! Africans would chop off the right hand of every man (that they spared his life to work in mine), woman (also brutally raped), and child so they would be reminded not to vote! Mexico's government is so corrupt they don't need to scare the voters! Just pay them off! Apples and oranges! But I hate to say it, the darker the skin color of the people, the more F'ed up the country! Mexico is bad, but when they kill 200,000 people with machetes just because they were from a different tribe, then start comparing them!

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  7. The only thing I can say is the cartels are greedy and they always want more no matter what and it doesn't matter who gets in their way. No one can negotiate with them, they have a term plomo or plata and this term means only one thing " YOU DO WHAT I SAY AND YOU GET A LITTLE MONEY OR YOU DON'T DO WHAT I SAY AND I WILL KILL YOU " They rationality is only in their own personal gain.

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  8. Expect some readers to totally miss the point of this article. No doubt there are some sick people out there, but they want people to fear them, so they do whatever it takes. They want to be feared more than the law is respected.

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  9. "Mexico’s organized criminal groups are rational actors"

    Stopped reading right there since this author knows nothing of the terrorists south of the border. Perhaps he should seek an advisory role in the Obamma administration.

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  10. This is not bullshit at all. Dont get stuck on actions of sicarios, look at the big picture, they have a goal that is to make more money and they are using unprecedented amounts of violence to get there. Yes the low level thugs dying by the thousands are barely more than psychotic killers but to say the same for Cartel leaders is extremely foolish.

    One thing I absolutely cannot agree with is that cartels have been forced to other crimes than drug trafficking because of increased effort against them. I see it as nothing more than natural continuation of their criminal activities in pursuit of more money.

    ps. “The military is trying to take what it did in Afghanistan and do the same in Mexico.” made me laugh, so they are going let drug production in Mexico skyrocket?

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  11. It's nothing more that cave man mentality, there's no rules , law or morals followed, in the end they will the worst that anyone could imagine, the lose of any Spirituality that's key to life.
    Some already understand this and I'm sure doing the best they can to get out, and I say best of luck to them.

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  12. DTOs' actions are cruel, violent and in occasions terrifying, but they still are rational actors. They set up meetings among themselves, have a hierarchy structure, a diverse portfolio that they try to maximize. They are like Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, Heinz, and all the big corporations you are all familiar with.

    The difference between the legitimate Co. and DTOs is that DTOs do not have the option of seeking legal remedies against their competitors. To claim that they are not rational actors is pretty childish.

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  13. Dear anonymous 8:52,

    I think you know very little about African history. The practice of chopping off hands as a punishment for not producing enough was started by King Leopold of Belgium when he controlled the Congo.

    Generally, I agree with the author in that the seemingly mindless brutality does have a purpose. It is capitalism gone mad. The dehumanized killers on the front lines are just puppets being manipulated and controlled by people who are getting very rich.I am a bit familiar with the African situation and I do see similarities between the two.

    The puppets aren't white, but some of the puppeteers are, in both Africa and Mexico. They are more evil because they are people with power who exploit the powerless.

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  14. Please do not compare Mexico to Africa. What about comparing the USA to Africa. Sure there is terror in Mexico caused by the DTO'S . Also there was terror in the USA caused by white people against black people. Black people was killed by white people. Blacks were burned alive, killed by home made bombs, their houses and churches burned down, dragged to death behind the white's cars and trucks, black girls rapped and then killed, black children killed with machetes. Even the then chief of police of Birmingham, Alabama was one of the killers and a Grand KKK Dragon. They even called Birmingham, BOMBINGHAM, AL. And that kind of terrorist actions against colored people lasted for years. There is still a lot of racial terror in the USA but American newspapers are not reporting those cases. Why? I am an American trucker.

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  15. Next they will start a union

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  16. So this is relevant to BB because it talks about Mexican criminal gangs but articles about Mexico's non-functional justice system are only relevant when they're about the drug war?

    I'm trying to understand why BB posts such gobbeldygook from the pseudo-intellectual, leftist, anti-US "Insight" but ignores stories about the corrupt Mexican Judiciary that releases cartel killers over and over. Is impunity not at the core of the problem?

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  17. I thank BB for such stories. The comments are as good as the article.

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  18. Another example on why they should require anyone with a PhD to get a permit before being able to express their opinions in public. They must demonstrate that they haven't lost touch with reality under the warm fuzzy blanket of acedemia as they push their view of the world on their captive audiences (students).

    Hey profe, rationize San Fernando !!!...pendejo.

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  19. This article is Soros funded CRAP

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  20. @1:00 pm Amen buddy. And they do like Soros.

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  21. Textbook "Kidnap and Ransom Insurance" salesman talk - "These more recent revenue streams have exhaustively targeted Mexican nationals. As the Mexican target set declines due to predation, closure and emigration, criminal groups will turn to foreign assets and those entities that have immobile fixed investments in the country." Translation: "You have been warned; but not to worry; I am articulate, well-read and up to date, so keep reading..."

    Then the "bite" from Housman in his discussing the use of UAVs/drones/intel: "This cooperation will inevitably increase direct criminal activity against foreign firms, including U.S. nationals and firms, which criminal groups have heretofore largely sought to avoid lest they draw U.S. retaliation. [Seems to make sense' but this next part...] Once such "retaliatory" actions become common, [ Huh?] these criminal groups will have less to lose in reacting to U.S. efforts and confronting foreign commercial assets." Translation: "WTF is this guy saying?" (He's giving "la luz verde" to the cartels; remember guys - Housman's an "expert"; an expert looking for business and he has a way with words...

    And for the unsuspecting - "la clave" this diddy; and keep in mind - we have been 1. placed on "notice", that the TROs are rational business enterprises, 2. who have nothing to lose - but wait!!! Their "...actions can be influenced. [$$$] A well designed systemic plan [could help] companies [reduce] the risks of operating in Mexico."

    Good businessmen don't rely on "could" that turn in to "should have", nor do they accept risks that are "reduced" - they (we) will wait until the those risks are all but "eliminated".

    Well; excuse me while I go and watch "Man on Fire" - Mickey Rourke (Chafitz) missed out on the big money coming to Mexico!

    Damn it, though...

    Everybody dies in that movie; I guess some things never change...

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