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Friday, May 15, 2020

Crisis Group Identifies 198 Narco Groups...The Importance of Borderland Beat vs El Universal

Chivis Martinez Borderland Beat  Crisis Group

More than Cartels: Counting Mexico’s Crime Rings


"We relied in particular on Borderland Beat, an English-language narcoblog run by Mexican-Americans, because it has the longest-running and most consistent coverage of drug-related violence in Mexico. We identified the names of possible crime rings using natural language processing (computational techniques designed to simplify and make sense of complex text), and we then hand-coded the possibilities to confirm a list of operating organisations...." click on any image to enlarge

The “war on drugs” has not smashed Mexican organised crime but broken it into smaller fragments that fight each other for turf. The sheer difficulty of counting the criminal groups underscores the scale of the government’s challenge in protecting the public.

The year 2019 was the most violent in Mexico’s recent history, due in large part to an escalation in fighting between factions of organised crime. But the media attention paid to the fortunes of drug kingpins like El Chapo glosses over the realities on the ground that seemingly are driving the murder rates ever upward. In general, Mexican criminal organisations have become smaller and smaller, their activities restricted to ever more specific locations. They battle over modest parcels of the economy, like the production and distribution of tobacco, avocados and porpoise livers, a delicacy in Chinese cuisine. Groups affiliated with larger criminal outfits also squabble over local turf. The evidence suggests that Mexico is stuck: the greater the government’s success in breaking up cartels, the more successor splinters emerge and the more difficult it is to forge some sort of peace.


In May 2019, as part of the rollout for his national crime-fighting strategy, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador recognised the existence of 37 “cartels”, many of them factions of larger organisations. This figure is a significant underestimate. But in trying to give a precise number, the government highlighted the sheer difficulty of mapping Mexico’s underworld, which has fragmented under the pressure of previous governments’ militarised “war on drugs”. Without a better understanding of the scale and character of this splintering, the government will have a hard time designing effective policies for curbing drug-related conflict. No one, for instance, knows the full answers to basic questions about exactly how the “war on drugs” has fractured organised crime; how in turn this phenomenon relates to the greater intensity of violence; or how the government might calibrate its policies to take on criminal groups of various sizes and structures. Until the government knows when and why new groups form, and how this process affects conflict, it will face major challenges in trying to end the cycle of fragmentation and violence.

The Challenges of Counting

Understanding these criminal groups – how they operate, how they relate to one another, how they respond to government policies – is central to explaining the spike in homicides in Mexico. But attaining accurate information on them poses a huge practical challenge. Typically, researchers would rely on the press, but crime reporting is extremely difficult. Mexico is the most dangerous country for journalists in the Western Hemisphere, despite federal protection efforts, and self-censorship generated by the threat of reprisal makes the quality of reporting on the drug war suspect, particularly in the most conflict-affected regions.

Complicating things further, in 2011 several large Mexican media outlets, agreed “to omit and dispose of information coming from criminal groups for propagandistic purposes”. The intention was to make it harder for these groups to intimidate and coerce the public via the press, but in practice it meant that some outlets stopped reporting all their statements. As a result, the public often does not know when new groups have arrived, because smaller or emerging organisations often use propaganda, such as banners hung in streets or statements posted on Facebook, to announce themselves.

In addition, many criminal groups in Mexico operate at such a small scale that the media may deem them too insignificant to cover at all. As factions become increasingly local, or increasingly specialised in extortion or trafficking of particular commodities, they tend to fall off the radar. Yet these small-timers play a large role in Mexico’s rising rates of violence and hold sway over many people’s lives.

“Narcoblogs”

Crisis Group has developed a better method of identifying which and how many criminal groups are operating in Mexico: analysis of “narcoblogs”, anonymously run websites that aggregate news of cartel activities from both mainstream media outlets and ordinary citizens. Narcoblogs, The Guardian reports, lay bare “day after day, the horrific violence censored by the mainstream media”. Like professional journalists, the operators of these websites face considerable danger. The creator of an early narcoblog fled Mexico after her partner called her to say only one word: “run”. But because they are anonymous, the blogs can avoid self-censorship, and because they rely on citizen testimony – as well as press accounts – they can offer a fuller picture of the drug war than traditional media.

To build a dataset of violent groups operating in Mexico, Crisis Group began by “scraping” major websites, that is, automatically downloading the text of posts in a way that can be processed into data. We relied in particular on Borderland Beat, an English-language narcoblog run by Mexican-Americans, because it has the longest-running and most consistent coverage of drug-related violence in Mexico. We identified the names of possible crime rings using natural language processing (computational techniques designed to simplify and make sense of complex text), and we then hand-coded the possibilities to confirm a list of operating organisations.

Findings

In total, we identified 463 criminal groups operating in Mexico between mid-2009 and
2019. Only about half of these appeared in El Universal, one of the country’s largest newspapers. Figure 1 shows the number of groups mentioned in Borderland Beat and El Universal since 2010, the first full year of the narcoblog’s posts. These figures could fall if it emerges that certain organisations operate under various names, or if some local outfits are excluded, but they nevertheless point to a steep rise in criminal activity.  In 2019 alone, Borderland Beat mentioned 198 groups, up from 98 in 2010. We see a similar doubling in El Universal’s coverage, even though the existence of smaller groups tends to go unreported in mainstream media. We included an organisation based on whether it operated under a unique name, a signal that it was working at least semi-independently. Fifty-two groups were identified solely on the basis of a leader’s name.


Identifying these criminal groups, even those affiliated with or allied to large cartels, is important because their proliferation shows how multi-sided Mexico’s drug war has become. Two bands called Los M and Gente Nueva warred in Durango state, though at the time both were flying the flag of the Sinaloa Cartel. Los 28 were operating as independent hit men before Jalisco New Generation Cartel recruited them to kill El Chapo’s children. An organisation led by El Teo, known as Los Teos, was initially allied with the Arellano Felix Cartel before realigning with the Sinaloa Cartel.

Given the complexity of relationships among these groups, we additionally tracked whether a group is allied with, splintered from or belongs to another organisation. Of those identified, at least 135 were cells of large cartels. We are expanding this data using outside sources to better identify connections among criminal actors. Thirty-one of the groups identified were autodefensas, local crime-fighting vigilantes, indicating that some of these outfits have criminal ties themselves. This figure is likely an underestimate, since many autodefensas operate under generic names that our research would not capture.

Our next step is to link these groups to municipalities where they operate. The new Crisis Group report on Guerrero state includes a map of the number of armed groups in each municipality in 2018 and 2019, drawing on El Blog del Narco, Mexico’s most popular narcoblog. To ensure these findings’ validity, we hand-coded each post related to Guerrero for whether a group operated in a given municipality or region. To replicate this method for the entire country would be time-consuming, however, and we are exploring ways to scale up our coding or improve the algorithm linking groups and municipalities.

Some preliminary maps for the whole of Mexico are below, though these should be interpreted with caution. Currently, we treat a group as operating in a municipality simply if the names of the group and locality are mentioned in the same post, likely yielding many “false positive” relationships. Our data do not yet take into account regions and cities mentioned instead of specific municipalities, which means that groups may be undercounted in certain areas. We also do not yet adjust for the fact that groups’ presence may not be reported in every year they operate in a municipality: if an organisation is linked to a region in 2016 and 2018, it may follow that they were also operating in 2017.



What the Data Shows

To our knowledge, this project is the first attempt to document all the non-state armed groups in Mexico, the vast majority of which are tied to violent crime. If anything, the 463 groups identified are an underestimate, and there are important limitations as to what is included. Criminal groups tend to be covered on narcoblogs when they engage in violence, suffer arrests, announce their activities or fall under government scrutiny. The data is more likely to include groups that seek some form of territorial control, and to miss some organisations that discreetly traffic in drugs. We hope to minimise the problem of missing groups by mining other narcoblogs, some of which are now defunct. For now, the estimate is best understood as tracking violent criminal groups that are fighting over territory.

This data can help explain the dynamics of criminal violence and group formation in Mexico, and the challenges facing conflict resolution strategies at the regional and national levels. For example, it can shed light on how government security policies have affected fragmentation, and how this process in turn relates to heightened levels of violent crime, particularly homicide. The data can also be used to understand how economic variables, such as shifts in commodity prices or the emergence of new trafficking routes, may affect the entry or exit of groups. In recent years, for example, increased consumer demand has led cartels to battle for control of the avocado trade. Above all, given the number of small and local outfits now involved in drug-related conflict, the data shows that focusing on dismantling major cartels is insufficient to reduce violence. It suggests that new policies – such as targeted recruitment prevention efforts, regional intervention plans, or reintegration and disarmament initiatives – may be better suited to the task. Narcoblogs also serve as a rich source for tracking other features of criminal violence, such as cartel propaganda and the growth of self-defence groups.
Our data shows a considerable rise in the number of criminal actors in Mexico over the last ten years. As more groups operate, violence among them becomes more likely and attempts at negotiation – like those in Guerrero – increasingly difficult to coordinate. Understanding the causes and consequences of this fragmentation will be essential for addressing the roots of Mexico’s crisis.


Fellow, Economics of Conflict

70 comments:

  1. Due respect given, very nice

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  2. MEXICO is really infested with Cartels all over the place. Don't know why the newspaper is afraid to post the truth.

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    1. Uhhhhh... Because México is one of the few that leads the free world in killing journalist... Nothing to be scared about.

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    2. Well my guess is bc Mexico is very dangerous for journalists. Tons of articles where someone is killed after what they wrote.

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    3. Depending on the area the newspapers can't report on criminal activity. They make you and your family disappear for posting the truth.

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    4. If you are affraid enough to be anonymous and keep secret your name and address, consider the paper and reporters have even more reason to not report fully on cartels, cartulinas, and cartelitos.

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    5. whereas this is true, in this day of technology there is nothing stopping using U.S. based reporters who utilize strikers on the ground. Zeta Tijuana does something similar.

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    6. 1:36 I stand corrected by you and Chivis, I live in USA, and news reporting is a given right, no wonder Reforma don't put all truth. I would not want to be disappeared thanks for the information.
      New to BB

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    7. One of the first assingments of a cdg plaza boss is to get to the local news outlets and put them on the payroll. No2 amd days they just shut em up. Only the big shootouts or arrests make the news on tamaulipas. As to the fragmentation of bigger cartels thats whats happens when big bosses get cought.

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    8. Has anyone researched how the decline in value of the Mexican Peso has correlated with the doubling of Mexico's homicides in the last 5 years?
      In 2015 one US dollar traded for 14 pesos, now a US dollar trades for 24 pesos. This is a HUGE 40 percent decline.
      The decline in peso value has contributed to the bloodshed because gangs and cartels are fighting for a smaller pie of wealth through currency devaluation.

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    9. Uh, cartel and crime rings are compromised of people. This article is a reflection of a significant segment of a nation: greedy people willing to kill others and lay waste to the environment for material gain. It reminds me of an old Mexican man who described his people using the bucket of crabs analogy. Ya'll know the one.

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  3. Felix Gallardo foresaw this splintering and infighting 40 years ago.
    Four decades of the "War" on drugs has resulted in more trafficking and more violence than ever before.

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    1. 5:56 40 years ago, with the 80s' great white hope of eternal reaganomics the CIA rogue agents brought drug trafficking to the US to greatest heights until they faltered in the 90s to Clinton-mania, and their drug trafficking did not start in the 80s or ended in the 90s,
      "The Guerra Falsa" in Bolivia had already been on since the early 60s but US meddling in South America was institutionalized.when United Fruit yielded to the CIA to put the expense of US supremacism on the backs of US taxpayers, and do not blame Chiquita Bananas either.

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  4. @Chivis and entire past and present BB Staff: Congratulations on being recognized as a source of "good" information on Mexico.

    @ Jane Esberg: Nice report. I appreciate the efforts in what has to be a daunting research project.

    Your report, clarifies why I get headaches trying to make sense of Mexico's criminal organizations.
    Here is a question for your coders: How do you code any give individual who has various names? Like a sobriquet , "Chapo" with other names combinations? El Chapo is easy because of his noteriety, but so many other criminal actors use one or more sobriquets as well as long, medium, or short surnames.

    IMO, The "person identity" coding must have been solved when going through many diverse items of information.
    So, if you are reading this, please drops some lines on my concerns.
    Signed: Tgter D. Zxuuqq ...AKA "El Sucio", AKA "45" , "Zopilote" or "Zopi".
    Mexico-Watcher

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    1. 6:08 you are sooo "elite"...
      Always hanging with the high and recognized and heaping praises on them while putting down all of Mexico and the Mexicans as a whole.
      --Hope you can still recognize that all the shit is still rolling down from above with every regime change bringing in new greedier criminals in government and outsider associates with new bags of dirty tricks, and this is not just in Mexico or the US, but there is China, and Russia associated with israeli, saudi and AMERICAN criminals...

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  5. Props to BB!! AWESOME!!!!

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  6. "Borderlandbeat does good reporting more than any other blog in the history of our country, every other site is doing very badly"
    #MAGA

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  7. Excelente job Chivis. Good flow, kept my interest up like a pro.

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    1. Chivis you deserve a 12;pack of Hieken.

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    2. Tecate light por favor... :)

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    3. Lol beer time.

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  8. As well, due respect. Good piece on fragmentation and more local anarchy. The way forward. Kingpin has failed.

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    1. 8:10 who do you think brung down the Kingpin?
      New smarter Kingpins who only got smarter Godfathers and little else.
      But in the sin is the penitence, "we'll see"

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  9. Knowing an accurate number of how many cartels or gangs are operating in Mexico is part of the battle.
    I’m surprised that the U.S. or Mexican Governments haven’t made any effort to do this before.
    I’d love to see a rough territorial control map of who owns what and where in Mexico

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    1. I am pretty sure U S. has a lot of Intel developed, on the Cartels multiplying. It is a Mexican issue, not an American issue, but as you can see the government of Mexico could care less on developing info. As long as the bribe money keeps coming in they will be working with the criminals.

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    2. 5:40
      sorry to disagree Its USA and the worlds issue now
      the money people companys spread everywhere

      Laws need to change in Mexico
      No more bullshit
      Hate to say it but One mean SOB needs to put his foot down
      hard and fast Blood will spill
      but until a Solid rightoues ruling hand comes in
      nothing nothing will change

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  10. Oh, and well done Borderland Beat.
    It says a lot for this blog that people consider you an accurate source of data.

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  11. Thank you for your reporting!

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  12. This long term study should have been done by the U.S. drug war is such a joke.

    I may check out other narco blogs but am a faithful follower of BB as it is consistent and wide range in its reporting.

    I am from Zacatecas

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    1. Tell us whats going on in zacatecas with cjng

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    2. It's a Mexico issue, not an American issue, but I am sure FBI DEA, develop leads which they keep secret, information can't be shared with the government of Mexico as it curupted. Case in point...a special elite team of 6 in mx military was developed to work together with DEA, They were vetted carefully. This happened 2 years ago, they were to take down a high ranking cartel official at a hotel. One of the MX elite tipped the cartel, henchmen arrived to the hotel, good thing DEA suspected a mole, took evasive action in hiding and lived to tell the story. Moral to the point MEXICO can not be trusted with info. US has.

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    3. 10:26 just in Fresnillo, you have rival neighborhoods, Barrio Alto, Maravillas, Colonia Esparza Tepecheros (TPCH), De La Plateros, bodegueros, and each must have now their own cartel membership, this was in the 70s.
      --People should not get lost in the rabble counting every little gramero as a cartel, truth be told, this shit stinks of a cover-up by diluting resources that would be better dedicated to the Biggest of the Big Fish.
      Like State Police full of corrupt Private Security Contractors in most states and municipales also corrupt collaborators of states attorneys, squeezing everybody for their governors and themselves, for example edgar veytia and roberto sandoval in Nayarit and arturo bermudez z uh rita and jorge "la marrana" duarte de ochoa in veracruz, el vikingo en Cancun, 5he coahuilans and the chihuahueños, tamaulipas, guerrero with the figueroas, jalisca governor alfaro out in power by CJNG who now commands plaza nueva, for his new political club Movimiento Ciudadano...and shit.

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  13. Chivis with all do respect was this why you were bitching about a few post back? Dont worry about them haters what ive seen through out about 7 years that ive read bb is more acurate than other sources plus you dont take no sides just write whats true, stop been a girl, again with all do respect, you know you got it, que sigan los perros ladrando

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  14. Sky did the math, also finds several hundred people per day have been dying from the virus, many of whom were not reported in official data.

    Sky News analysis of the data from 30 crematoria across Mexico City shows that each one is disposing of between 18 and 22 bodies each day, with a three-day backlog.

    Taking an average number of 20 cremations, Sky has calculated the total number of cremations every day is 600. This figure does not include other crematoria or burials.

    The urban area of Mexico City spans over two federal entities - Mexico City and the state of Mexico. Because of this, in order to work out the official figure for how many people have died, the figures for the two entities need to be added together.

    Government figures show that the average number of people who die every day in Mexico City in May is 189 and (averaged out over the last five years for which figures are available, 2014-18) and the number for the state of Mexico is 185. That makes a total average daily deaths of 374.

    That means there are at least 226 excess deaths occurring every day in early May, with most probably down to coronavirus.

    In fact, crematorium sources told Sky News that 80-90% of the deaths they are having to deal with are due to COVID-19.

    Sky's analysis suggests the government's official figure is about 19% of the actual number of COVID-19 deaths in Mexico City, and the real value is probably five times higher, which is why the city is burning bodies on an industrial level. This is exactly what happened in Wuhan, China.

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    1. I too heard it from another news outlets, that Obrador is having the covid19 reporting of deaths in Mexico City under reported. Mexico City is the epicenter.
      I have a feeling Chivis is going to uncover things going on there.
      Mexico-Observer

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    2. 9:19 the US has 1/4th of the world's population, and 1/3rd of the world's infections, along with 1/3 the world deaths, but NY area got the most infections and deaths thanks to the federal goverrnment blocking info and relief and supplies until they extorted and got themselves even more and more and more relief...

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  15. Viva Borderland Beat!.

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  16. Every since Chapós second arrest and extradition everyone with wild, say what wanna say about him and his people but they kept the violence down when he was in charge. Now everyone is fighting for plazas, you never had this much violence in all of Mexico. Besides Tamaulipas, Michoacan, Fresnillo, and Tijuana there was no crazy cartel wars in other states. Everyone was aligned and and was good. People respected and were scared of chapo. If you didn’t fall in line you either got killed or arrested and killed in jail. Lol. Either or.

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    1. Alot of deaths were done when he was not in prison. Could you be a sinaloa cheerleader?

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    2. You're just talking about Sinaloa right?

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    3. What he’s trying to say is that Mexico wasn’t burning like it is now. Of course there were deaths during his time but not like now. Where every Juan Tamaños is fighting every Pepe Ladrillos. There’s a lot of infighting among cells. We have never seen Mexico this bad. But it’s happened every time the main boss is put out of commission. Flex, Amado, and now chapo.

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    4. "bUt MaYo WaS tHe MaIn bOsS!1" lol...that argument is such bs...Chapos kids have more power than amlo and people try to say Chapo wasnt the boss of Sinaloa.

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  17. Knowing more about drug cartels than everyone on this website put together my opinion is that anyone relying on this site for their information needs to find a new topic.

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    1. Huh Visa versa.

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    2. Yes sir! Right away!

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    3. @2:54am hotshot at best, pedantic at worst.

      (Pedantic...making an undue or inappropriate display of knowledge, learning.)

      Canadian girl

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    4. TY Gurrrrrrrrrrrrrrrl...there's always one...eh?

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    5. 2:54 Admirable display of Wise Ass...
      But where is the Wise Guy proving the smart?

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    6. La Chivis you're an Honourary 🇨🇦 Canadian eh! lol

      Canadian girl

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    7. Sure...why not? jajaja my husband wants us to move to canada.

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  18. Now days every crime can be called cartel related. There is really not that many actual cartels based on the traditional term of a cartel which is a highly organized criminal organization with ties to the government and has international ties, and whose main income was smuggling drugs. Now there are many criminal groups way too many, who do rely on drug sales but at a local level, who rely on theft, extortion, prostitution, kidnapping, some receive cartel support, some are independent but the thing is that theyre way too many more than actual cartel and may not be as powerful as a cartel but they sure are just as dangerous and theyre creating chaos on their own communities and the government just doesnt do enough. Many where part of a cartel before breaking up, but others are your local gang, band of criminals who are just becoming more agressive and behaving just as deadly, theyre no longer being kept on check by a cartel, instead many are even standing up against cartels trying to make a name for them selves.

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    1. @4:17 A.M.: Excellent observations. The fragmentation of cartels, plus the low educational quality, plus a DNA ingrained proclivity for heinous violence, plus endemic corruption add more reasons for Mexico's slide into chaotic anarchy....and catastrophic violence . Can AMLO save Mexico? Nah, I don't think anything can.
      Mexico-Watcher

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    2. 12:05
      Agree with you 100%

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    3. 12:05 even tromp respects AMLO,
      Many other heads of state also respect Him AND Mexico,
      because they know better than you and your pig headed "opinions".
      --Compare the maras criminals in their still not dead countries with a Mexico that still does not want to go around killing every ugly looking motherfacker because of their looks and Mexico wins in decency, the federal government is not into murdering mexicans left and right no mó...

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  19. Congrats to BB receiving much well-deserved attention!

    As far as the report goes its academic drivel 'forgetting' to mention the fact that the WoD is a huge failure (for all but a few interest groups) and that today we have more, cheaper and stronger drugs on our streets, parks, homes and schools than ever!

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  20. What the hell is the use of identifying cartels, When the goverment & citizens don't do anything.
    I know......they want to identify to get cash from cartels.

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    1. If light is never focused on a problem then it hides undercover.
      BB is being recognized as a laser beam on a crisis of humanity that the world would be glad to ignore otherwise.
      It's up to the Mexican government to do the right thing with the information brought to light.

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    2. 9:59 that "right thing" will be some juicy Contract On Mexico with millions of dollars to Private Security Corporations, i am sure...
      May even be offered monetary "help from the US" programmed to steal from US coffers mostly for benefit of the middlemen like those War on Drugs designers...

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  21. This is amazing. Great job Borderland Beat. It seems other blogs go for the shock and gore which I imagine 'sells', but this blog provides a good balance of what is happening south of our border.

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  22. How is it that Japan being an island with few natural resources is the 3rd largest economy on the planet and yet Mexico, which has pretty much everything- even oil/natural gas- is so poor?

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    1. The highest of the high have been robbing it blind since porfirio Diaz

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    2. All of the politicians in Mexico have Sicarios who work for them and murder their enemies.

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  23. GREAT READ These words are all the questions I had in my mind.
    I was thinking of all the underground people or even ones on the surface.
    Its amazing that this drug world is deeper and much bigger them many may think or know

    So, How or what do we call Mexico if a label was Given ?
    this leaves me with a very very sad veiw of Mexico It will never change only get worse I fear I also fear a coup or a take over of all Goverment is dawning. IN fighting for power will get worse When a certain group will get weapons that will destory all of what Mexico is now
    My words cant explain what I feel
    But I feel there is No turning it around for the better This has gotton out of hand and is much bigger and goes to deep.
    I do not see a future for Mexico in any way thats good Before you know it it wil look like the Gaza strip
    I am serious Look at any country that is war torn This is going to be Mexico before long Mexico will become like the middle east ...
    maybe I am crazy !
    10-15 teen yrs San Diego Calif will not be the place it is now It will become the largest Army active base followed by Arizona
    I can see this ..happening

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    1. Northern California is being infected by drug criminals, coming from Mexico, to get rich on the drug sales, supply. Soon cartels will fight for turf of our beloved free land.

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  24. It’s just paper until they go after the politicians.

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  25. This is a monumental testimony to the work you all do here. Please remain anonymous and safe. The body of work here is really Pulitzer material and that will prove to be the case as time passes.

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  26. I don't watch CNN, don't read New York Times- and I sure as hell don't pay any attention to El Universal..... all the same to me.


    ABK

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    1. but you follow us, right ABK? which is sorta the bottom line. still waiting BTW :)

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  27. Yes, kudos to BB on this recognition. There still should be applicable journalistic recognition for this, awards.

    Speaking of journalists, I websearched "most dangerous countries for journalists", it is interesting what one finds. I'd urge reader's to look it up themselves.

    Oh, and lastly, the Crises group, this organization, I would urge folks to look them up. I believe they are on twitter, have their own website and definitely cover much of the world, so it is not just Mexico and the USA.

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    1. TY. Yes Crisis Group is global, and one of three websites I follow and rec notices via email

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