Stratfor: Beware of Fabricated Narco Reports...

Borderland Beat Republished from Hell on Earth and written by Stratfor Intelligence

Below is an extraction.  Stratfor is spot on in this report.  DD posted this on forum, and tongue in cheek, asked if I gave the information to Stratfor, because it is precisely what I have been saying for a long while.  BDN, once a go to source, albeit they did snag articles from the media, including this blog, and posted it as their work, but the material was usually credible.  Once the fictitious Lucy came into the mix, BDN changed ownership and began posted whatever they could steal AND fabricate.  They even resort to re-posting  old fotos and creating new stories to support the fotos.  Such practices rely on the fact that it is extremely difficult to access information in Mexico on organized crime news and activities.  This leaves reporters to the task of establishing credible sources, on the ground or off the record.  Be careful with material gleaned from these narco blogs.  Before you pass on bad information, get secondary sources.  Nothing stands out, tin the report, that I find is in error.  When BB has published stories that are not substantiated, but widely reported, we will refer to them as rumor, as use words such as "supposedly", but for the most part, we stay away from such stories if they originate from one of the blogs known to report fiction as fact..   "C"

Truce by Zetas and Gulf Cartel a fabricated story

On Nov. 10, rumors of a new Los Zetas-Gulf cartel alliance in Tamaulipas state began circulating across various social media outlets. The rumors address a purported pamphlet showing the photos of a well-known Gulf cartel leader and a former Los Zetas top leader, and a printed message proclaiming the new alliance. Initial rumors do not explicitly state where pamphlets have been circulating, though other social media reports have since implied the pamphlets have circulated in Tamaulipas. 

Stratfor strongly doubts the authenticity of this specific rumor, though we do expect alliances between Los Zetas and at least some of the various Gulf cartel gangsto eventually emerge. Nevertheless, traditional Mexican media outlets have now begun republishing the rumor. As a result, Stratfor expects the rumor to continue circulating, likely leading to widespread misinformation on the current organized crime dynamics in Tamaulipas state.

There are currently no reports that any pamphlets actually existed in circulation outside of online media. Furthermore, the originator of the rumored alliance and pamphlet, a blog focusing on Mexican organized crime called El Blog del Narco (one of several "narco blogs" calling themselves "Blog del Narco"), is not a credible source of information.

Lazca-Z40

Narco blogs routinely provide fabricated stories on Mexican organized crime that can at times become widely reported, eventually leading to general acceptance of fact. Such false narratives have included a war between now-deceased Los Zetas top leader Heriberto "El Lazca" Lazcano Lazcano and now-detained Los Zetas top leader Miguel "Z-40" Trevino; the emergence of several Los Zetas splinter groups such as "Sangre Z"; and a 2012 incursion into Nuevo Laredo by the Sinaloa Federation.

Z50

In some cases, such as the 2012 Sinaloa incursion into Nuevo Laredo, falsely reported rumors are a product of an information operations campaign, using social media reporting as just one tool on behalf of a criminal organization. In Nuevo Laredo, a former Los Zetas crime boss, Ivan "El Taliban" Velazquez Caballero, went to war with then-top leader Trevino but initially conducted violent attacks under the guise of the Sinaloa Federation. In other cases, narco blogs design false rumors simply to catch attention and attract web traffic. Narco blogs, including Notinfomex and El Blog del Narco, frequently fabricate stories regarding public (such as narcomantas) and private communication among organized crime groups

Los Rojos-CDG Alliance

The Nov. 10 rumor specifically announces an alliance between the leader of the Los Rojos Gulf cartel faction, Juan Reyes "R-1" Mejia Gonzalez, and recently released former Los Zetas top leader Rogelio "El Kelin" or "Z-2" Gonzalez Pizana. While Los Zetas were still formally a part of the Gulf cartel, Gonzalez Pizana replaced the first top leader of Los Zetas, Arturo "Z-1" Guzman Decena, in 2002 after the military killed Guzman Decena in a firefight. Mexican authorities eventually arrested and imprisoned Gonzalez Pizana in 2004, leading to Lazcano's ascent to the top position before his own death in 2012. However, Gonzalez Pizana was reportedly released from prison in September 2014. The pamphlet states explicitly that "The Gulf Cartel and Los Zetas are no longer fighting" and that the new alliance wants peace for Tamaulipas.

Even if Mejia Gonzalez and Gonzalez Pizana were to form a criminal alliance, the Gulf cartel has not been a single cohesive criminal structure since 2012. Rather, it has been an umbrella label for an increasing number of independent groups operating in various areas typically thought of as being Gulf cartel territory. As a result, Mejia Gonzalez, even if a crime boss of a powerful gang, would not lead the bulk of the Gulf cartel gangs. Likewise, Gonzalez Pizana may maintain his own significant criminal organization, but the brother of now-detained Miguel Trevino, Omar "Z-42" Trevino, commands at least the majority, if not the entirety, of the Los Zetas criminal organization. Consequently, unless Gonzalez Pizana is working with Omar Trevino and Mejia Gonzalez in coordination with the various crime groups in surrounding Reynosa, Tampico and Matamoros, the alliance, even if true, would not indicate a more cohesive organized crime landscape in Tamaulipas. Instead, the rumors reveal yet another new criminal alliance likely to find conflict with other criminal organizations in Tamaulipas state.